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Kyiv’s $150B Framework — Europe Pays, America Sells
Ukraine is floating a $150B package: $90–100B in U.S. weapons financed largely by European partners, plus $50B in joint drone production with American firms. The aim: secure U.S. guarantees, tie Europe to long-term financing, and lock in U.S. industrial participation post-accord. Investor read-through: Whether war drags on or peace takes hold, U.S. defense revenues are baked in.
Chips as Cash Register and Cudgel
Washington is weighing converting CHIPS Act (Biden-era legislation) subsidies into ~10% non-voting equity in Intel, while demanding a 15% skim on Nvidia’s China H20 revenues (with AMD reportedly in the mix). Subsidies become stakes; export licenses become toll booths. Market angle: Intel cuts funding costs, its CEO gets out of Trump PR-jail, but the company inherits policy overhang. Nvidia preserves access to China at thinner margins, creating a precedent for license-conditioned economics.
Resetting Bargaining Power
Intel’s CEO drew rare public rebuke before reports of a U.S. stake surfaced. The sequence signals Washington’s tactic: first apply pressure, then attach capital and concessions. A similar logic shapes Ukraine—float peace terms, attach U.S. guarantees to industrial deals, shift financing burdens to Europe. After a disastrous first meeting at the White House, Zelensky learned the ropes: wear a suit (Trump asked nicely), and offer candy to the President.
Risk Map — Policy Volatility Premium
Ukraine: Proposals touching Crimea or NATO renunciation collide with Kyiv’s constitution, sustaining demand for drones and air defense near term. Russia continues to pound Ukraine; Trump shakes his head, and Europe borrows at scale to fully re-arm.
Policy volatility: Equity stakes, skims, and tariff threats can shift overnight. Watch CHIPS disbursement calendars and export-license reviews. This flatters China’s Made in China 2025 plan.
Industrial crowding: Winners get capital and contracts; laggards face higher costs of capital and tighter scrutiny.
From Solyndra to Skims — The Policy Evolution
Then (2011): Solyndra’s $535M DOE loan guarantee left taxpayers exposed to full downside with no upside levers. Bankruptcy cemented its infamy.
Now (2025): Equity stakes, royalties, and conditional licenses tie support to performance. Taxpayers gain contingent upside, policymakers retain control.
Continuity: Public capital still steers industry. Discontinuity: The model shifted from “guarantee the bet” to “own the option and meter the gate.”
Powell’s Jackson Hole Balancing Act
Navigating market sentiment, skewed toward a September rate cut, and his own focus on a legacy of not being Arthur Burns, Powell made the tightrope look like a suspension bridge and the markets cheered him all the way across.
Key Takeaways:
He rationalized the tension in the data—CPI, PPI, and employment—with a classic bit of central banker-speak: “Distinguishing cyclical from trend is difficult.” Translation: reasonable folks can differ; the data can be confusing.
He acknowledged the one-time price shock of tariffs. Yes, there’s uncertainty. Yes, impact is accumulating unevenly. But it’s “manageable,” and unless the labor market tightens, a wage-price spiral seems unlikely.
GDP is slowing. Powell admits policy may be too restrictive.
The neutral Fed Funds rate may be higher than we thought, but the time may be right to finally adjust policy.
But before we sign off on the full “Chairman Redemption” narrative, let’s check the history:
Tightened too much in Q4 2018—then promptly U-turned.
Eased too slowly in Q1 2020—late to the punch, pandemic edition.
Tightened too late in 2021-2022—no one forgets “transitory.”
Failed to adequately supervise in the lead-up to the regional banking crisis of 2023—“nobody saw it coming,” except, of course, the chart watchers.
Powell can’t pull legacy from the jaws of mediocrity just by #resisting Trump. But, he has baked in a cut for September.
How did the markets take it? Powell just lit a rocket:
Stocks: bid
Bonds: bid
Precious metals: bid
Bitcoin: bid
USD: sell
Whatever the Fed’s gameplan, risk assets loved the vibe—at least for today. See asset table below for the play-by-play.
In The Markets — AI Rally Meets Reality
The AI trade hit turbulence. Earnings reality is replacing hype as capital rotates into balance-sheet strength and defensives. Regulators are tightening rhetoric on AI ethics. This week feels less like panic, more like a collective exhale — conviction over FOMO. And, to make a happy Friday, Powell took his foot off the brake—watch the markets burn some rubber.
Closing Thoughts
The only thing running harder than the market since April might be the collective imagination of AI boosters—until Sam Altman’s “pause” and Meta’s hiring freeze called time, and the markets paused.
Enter Powell, just in time to stop the slide. But in Jackson Hole or on Wall Street, remember: the 12 Fed governors are just hikers, navigating terrain the Teton-sized terrain of broader financial markets. They should hand the short-term rate decisions to the markets, but, for now, Powell has avoided a fifth policy mistake and kept the shadow of Arthur Burns at bay.
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Table of contents
Author
Neil Winward is the founding partner of Dakota Ridge Captial, helping investors, developers, banks, non-profits, and family offices unlock massive tax savings - on average of 7%- 10% - via clean energy investments by fully leveraging U.S. government incentives such the Inflation Reduction Act.
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Explore this week’s market shifts, from Goldilocks conditions to U.S. government-led industrial investments, precious metals rallies, and the AI circular economy. Learn when to hold, fold, and navigate policy-driven opportunities.
Macro Pulse: Top 3 Market Shifts This Week
Goldilocks Grinds On — Until the Chairs Move
Goldilocks is still loving the music—but, as every seasoned player knows, when the chairs start moving, the music ends fast. Translation: It’s a bullish bonanza, but risks are lurking and seats are limited. Watch who’s still standing when the lights flicker.
Precious Metals & Bitcoin — All That Glitters
Gold and silver surged this week alongside Bitcoin. The inflation-hedge narrative is back—layered this time with shutdown drama and geopolitical paranoia. Bitcoin isn’t just speculation anymore; it’s “digital gold” for a market that doesn’t trust that politicians (or hackers) can’t flip the switch.
Reason for the rally: The U.S. government’s latest shutdown spectacle—a masterclass in dysfunction.
“Nobody really thinks Washington will fix itself, but if we pretend long enough, at least gold goes up.”
America’s ‘V.C.’ Portfolio — Four to Watch
Not your grandfather’s industrial policy. The U.S. now holds stakes in Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals—a move straight from Xi’s playbook. These firms outperform because Uncle Sam isn’t just printing dollars anymore; he’s printing term sheets and permits.
Call it statecraft, call it crowdsourced national security—just don’t ignore it.
Quick Hits
Labor Market: Job growth is cooling just enough for Powell to sound dovish—still “just right.”
S&P 500: Breadth improving—mid-caps finally joining the party.
Energy Infrastructure: $1T grid upgrade wave, $50B natural gas expansion = transition pragmatism.
AI Capex: OpenAI alone projects $1T in long-term commitments.
Investor Dilemma: Same as always—when to sell, when to keep dancing. Nobody rings the bell at the top.
This week’s deep dive: How America became its own venture capitalist, why hyperscalers are building a circular AI economy, and whether Goldilocks is glancing at the exit or just finding another chair.
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Gold isn’t just glimmering—it’s signaling a deeper structural shift in global finance. Silver, copper, and platinum are no longer sidekicks. They’re now central to both industrial growth and investor portfolios.
This week’s MacroMashup debrief explores why metals are back in focus—and why this cycle looks different from those before.
Key Takeaways
Central banks are buying gold at record levels while trimming Treasuries.
Fiat debasement is now a feature, not a bug.
Industrial demand for silver, copper, and platinum is accelerating due to grid expansion, EVs, and defense.
Supply bottlenecks (from missiles to mining) make metals a geopolitical flashpoint.
Historical Context
Gold has experienced three major bull runs—in the 1970s, the 2000s, and now. A crisis, policy shift, or geopolitical event sparked each. Today’s rally is different: it’s being driven by central banks and global power realignment.
👉 Full breakdown of these cycles, what central banks are really signaling, and how portfolios should adapt is available in the premium edition.
Metals are no longer “alternative” assets. They’re fast becoming core reserves and strategic allocations.
➡️ To access the full deep dive—including charts, history, and investor positioning—subscribe to MacroMashup Premium for only 9$/mo.
Another 25bps Fed charade, gold + Bitcoin crush the S&P, AI guts Gen Z’s job market, and foreign money returns with a hedge.
The Fed’s Theater, Gold’s Triumph, and Gen Z’s Meltdown
The Great 25 Basis Points Charade
Why It’s Time to End the Fed’s Kabuki
Another month, another Fed press conference. Jerome Powell delivered the most telegraphed 25bps cut of the decade, and markets barely yawned (although, after they slept on it, they liked it better).
S&P 500? Opened flat, closed flat. In between: wild swings as Powell tried to say nothing while pretending to say something.
Theatrics aside, the real question is: what’s the point of this performance?
The Fed has become a hostage to market expectations. Every move is pre-priced. Every word is rehearsed. And the “independence” fiction is stretched thin.
Takeaway: Rate-setting has already been ceded to markets. The Fed should admit it—and stick to plumbing fixes like repo, lending, and shadow-bank supervision. Until then, we’re watching monetary improv, not policy.
Gold, Silver, and the End of Dollar Exceptionalism
While Powell’s kabuki played out, gold and silver quietly tripled the S&P 500’s YTD returns.
Gold/S&P ratio just broke a multi-year base—the same setup that preceded monster runs in the 1970s and 2000s.
For the first time ever, the U.S. is a net importer of physical gold.
BRICS nations are doubling down on reserves. Trump’s tariff threats only deepen their resolve to build gold-backed trade corridors.
Signals missed by the mainstream:
Gold and Bitcoin are both outpacing equities.
Scarcity—metallic and digital—is the new hedge as fiat dilution accelerates.
Dollar exceptionalism is ending, quietly, while news anchors chatter about meme stocks.
AI Is Annihilating Gen Z’s Career Hopes
The business cycle has snapped. Productivity is up and boosting tech earnings. Gen Z jobs are vanishing.
Tens of thousands of entry-level knowledge roles are gone in tech and services.
Average Gen Z FICO scores fell 3 points—the steepest drop since 2008.
14% saw a 50-point nosedive, locking them out of mortgages and credit.
The “J-curve” optimists say recovery will come. The catch? No one knows where. AI has so far freed people from paychecks, rather than giving them a new pathway to shine.
Investor lens: If the 20-somethings can’t climb the ladder, consumer demand—especially housing—gets kneecapped. The only asymmetric bet Gen Z has is crypto.
Foreign Money Returns But With a Hedge
“Liberation Day” saw foreigners dump U.S. assets. Now they’re back—but hedged.
Currency-hedged funds dominate inflows.
Foreign ownership of Treasuries is at a record, but the dollar is still down 11% YTD.
International investors are treating the U.S. like any other ex-growth developed market: buy equities, short the dollar.
Decoupling confirmed: The S&P can rise while the dollar falls. This is the new playbook.
America Bends the Knee to China
Official rhetoric says “pushing back on China.” Reality says economic feudalism.
Beijing is amassing gold and silver, with 30% of trade now settling in yuan, a 10-year high.
Belt & Road vaults let borrowers repo gold locally, bypassing Treasuries.
This is the architecture of a new monetary regime. Corridor by corridor, gold is being re-monetized. The U.S. political class? Still playing catch-up. But at least they’re in the race.
Meanwhile in Windsor: Pageantry and Protest
As the U.S. kneels economically, Britain rolled out the literal red carpet.
Trump feted at Windsor Castle in full royal regalia: horses, chariots, fanfare.
Outside: activist artists projection-mapped Trump and Epstein across the castle walls during dinner. Four arrests, little coverage.
Visual metaphor of the week: Gilded decline inside, scandal suppressed outside.
In The Markets
Closing Note: Macro’s Smoke and Mirrors
The week ends in monetary fog.
Gold and Bitcoin are flashing green.
Gen Z’s labor market is a demolition zone.
Dollar weakness no longer blocks equity strength.
The inflation that matters isn’t CPI or PPI. It’s the fiscal and monetary inflation of financial assets. Stay uninvested, and you’ll be left behind.
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