Trump’s tax play is here. And yes, it’s big, beautiful, and completely unaffordable.

‍

BREAKING NEWS: The House just passed the One Big, Beautiful Tax Bill—with last-minute concessions that rewrote the rules for clean energy investment. We at Dakota Ridge Capital are monitoring the situation closely and sending timely updates to our mailing list. Read more here.

‍

Key Provisions:

‍

• Middle-class relief: Expanded credits, lower rates for households under $200K
• Business perks: R&D credits, full expensing, and factory-friendly deductions.
• Infrastructure money: Roads, energy, digital upgrades.
• Tariff buffer: Assistance for workers and industries exposed to global trade.
• Retirement twist: MAGA accounts ($5,000/yr, with $1,000 seed for newborns).
• Top tax rate stays at 37%—no reversion to 39.6%.
• IRA trimmed, but not gutted.

‍

But the trade-off? A deficit surge.

‍

Markets love tax cuts. Bonds, not so much.

‍

Markets Turn Risk-On—But Bond Traders Aren’t Buying It

‍

Global growth is still slowing:

‍

• IMF, World Bank, and OECD all trimmed forecasts.
• Global GDP for 2025: 2.3%—not keeping pace with inflation.
• U.S. expected to grow 2.2%, EU just 1.1%, Eurozone a weak 0.9%.

‍

What changed? April 7 happened.

‍

• Stocks crashed, bonds buckled.
• Gold soared. Bitcoin held.
• The screen was red, and portfolios bled.
• Tariff worries seeped into global trade forecasts.

‍

But since then…

‍

• Tariff ‘deals’ appeared quickly.
• Equities rebounded fast.
• Bonds? Still nervous.
• MOVE index (bond volatility) spiked above 135—a level that triggers action from someone, somewhere

‍

Why the divergence?

‍

• U.S. debt issuance: ~$1T rolling over in 30 days
• Credit downgrade.
• Inflation still sticky, Fed still frozen.
• Deficits projected to grow.

‍

Meanwhile, while stocks have been pulling capital from gold and silver, all three began to trade up together…until stocks got hit by a weak bond auction.

‍

Middle East Deals: Big Numbers, Bigger Implications

‍

The Gulf is betting on U.S. stability—with trillions.

‍

Defense

‍

• Saudi Arabia: $142B in U.S. defense contracts.
• Qatar: $96B deal including Boeing’s largest aircraft order and $42B in weapons.

‍

Tech & AI

‍

• Saudi’s DataVolt to invest $20B in U.S. AI/data centers.
• Google, Oracle, AMD, Salesforce, Uber: $80B in joint U.S.-Saudi initiatives.

‍

Energy & Infra

‍

• GE Vernova exporting $14.2B in gas turbines.
• U.S. firms tapped to build airports, parks, entire cities in the Gulf.

‍

Financial & Real Estate

‍

• Qatar’s direct investment in the U.S. hit $3.3B in 2023—and growing.
• Gulf sovereigns signal this is just the start.

‍

Investor Takeaway: Watch defense, tech, and infra stocks with MENA exposure.

‍

Still Unsure What To Do With Your Portfolio? Start Here.

‍

April 7 was a gut check. Remember how you felt?

‍

• Did you panic sell?
• Dump everything into cash?
• Swear off risk?
• Or did you double down with a plan?

‍

Now that the dust has settled, ask:

‍

• Were your decisions signal-based—or emotion-based?
• Were you following narratives, or following a system?

‍

The Case for Systems Over Sentiment

‍

What works:

‍

• A framework for identifying market regimes (growth, inflation, liquidity)
• Macro factor tracking (yields, spreads, commodities)
• Regime-based asset allocation rules
• An overlay that adapts for momentum, volatility, and price

‍

There are many options—just don’t fly blind.

‍

In the Charts

‍

• S&P 500: Net positive YTD, despite the noise
• 10-Year Treasury: Still elevated, still flashing caution.
• Weak 20-year Treasury auction spooks bonds and weighs on stocks.
• Gold vs. Bitcoin: Volatility gap narrowing—watch this pair.
• USD: Direction unclear, but Treasury actions suggest soft-dollar bias.

‍

‍

• Volatility in both stocks and bonds spiked during the tariff tantrum.
• MOVE Index (bond equivalent of VIX): Spiked in April, now retreating, but still above comfort levels.
• MOVE hitting 135 → alarm bells and some version of the cavalry arrives.
• Lower volatility helped stocks rebound—why not bonds?

‍

‍

• Elevated yields? Dealers going short ahead of the auction nudges the price down/yield up and locks in a profit.
• Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating?
• Big deficit worries—the One Big, Beautiful Tax Bill will not fix that.
• Treasury market struggles show up in weak 20-year auction (mentioned 3x because…).

‍

Weekly Highlights

‍

We’re proud to share this in-depth feature in Clockwork’s latest blog: “The Hidden Engine of Clean Energy.” Dive into how Dakota Ridge Capital is helping shape the future of renewables through innovative tax equity strategies.

‍

Watch or listen to Episode 4 of the MacroMashup podcast: featuring Manish Jain, CEO and Founder of Mezzi Wealth. If you’re looking for a way to take control of your investments, give it a listen. Manish and his team give you a fantastic tool to organize and understand your investment portfolio.

‍

Watch or listen to Dr. Pippa Malmgren on tariffs, power politics, and what the headlines aren’t saying.

‍

Enjoyed this newsletter? Get Involved.

‍

• Subscribe to MacroMashup: one email a week, zero noise.
• Watch us on YouTube, or tune in via Spotify / Apple
• Collaborate with us at contact@macromashup.com

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Book a Call

Welcome to Macro Mashup, the weekly newsletter that distills the content from key voices on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and energy in less than 7 minutes. Thank you for subscribing!

‍

Macro Mashup aims to bring together the greatest minds in Finance and Economics who care deeply about current U.S. and international affairs. We study the latest news and laws that affect our economy, money, and lives, so you don't have to.

‍

Tune in to our channels and join our newsletter, podcast, or community to stay informed so you can make smarter decisions to protect your wealth.

‍

What Is The Tariff Strategy?

‍

The markets have been waiting for Liberation Day. Now it has arrived, what does it mean?

‍

President Trump said the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs would be 50% of the rate charged to the U.S. The method used by the administration is:

‍

‍

‍

There are two problems with this:

‍

• It is cumulative, so the reciprocal rate is stacked on tariffs already levied, e.g. add the reciprocal tariff of 34% to the existing 20% tariff on China, taking the total tariff to 54%
• It is not clear how or when this tariff will roll-off

‍

The upside is that this is probably the worst case, so things can only get better from here, and at least we have some certainty now…

‍

What’s The Plan?

‍

Here’s an overview of what Trump is trying to accomplish with his tariff strategy:

‍

The strategy intends to shift the dots toward the reciprocity line. The historical quid pro for this asymmetry has been that the U.S. should receive support from the U.N. votes.

This has not worked out so well: most of the beneficiaries of the asymmetrical trade balance with the U.S. have voted with the U.S. less than 50% of the time.

‍

The plan is to take tariffs back to pre-1950 levels - even if it means inflation.

‍

But, the plan is not working…yet:

‍

• Inflation is not under control

‍

• And new business orders and small business capex plans are trending in the wrong direction:

‍

‍

Our post-WWII, post-Bretton Woods deal with the rest of the world is that we buy everyone’s ‘stuff’—which drives the trade deficits—and we ‘export’ premium-priced financial assets such as stocks and bonds.

‍

If this deal is going to change—and President Trump wants it to change—then there will be outflows from stocks and bonds. This is one reason the financial markets are freaking out.

‍

According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the administration is attempting to significantly reset the economy, but for Main Street, not Wall Street, which is designed to set the U.S. on a much stronger footing.

‍

‍

In the short term, however, the impact on the investment landscape is volatile.

‍

Here are a few screenshots before during and after the tariff announcements:

‍

Before the announcement

‍

SQQQ, the 3x leveraged bet on the NASDAQ going down was down on the day.

‍

After the announcement

‍

‍

SQQQ turned around in the aftermarket yesterday and is now up nearly 14% Thursday afternoon.

‍

I’m Not Smart Enough to Trade This Market - Your Mileage May Differ

‍

Navigating this chaotic market is very hard. The long-term policy post-reset may be a good one, but getting there is like threading the eye of a tiny needle. You have to have great eyes or great trading tools.

‍

The chart above is crazy.

‍

• It shows the NASDAQ 100 index and the 3x leveraged inverse ETF SQQQ, which bets on the NDX going down.
• The bar at the bottom indicates Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence. RSI is an indicator of momentum based on price changes in the last 14 days.
• The RSI divergence measures divergence from that momentum. Divergence indicates possible reversals of momentum.
• Look at the number of bull and bear divergences in the last five days!

‍

Pro Tip: Stay on the sidelines when the market is like this to avoid getting hurt. Bets in either direction could be terribly wrong…or terribly right.

‍

Tools You Can Use If You’re Not a Day Trader

‍

There are two pattern indicators I like over longer cycles:.

‍

• Kondratieff Wave
• Elliot Wave

‍

Here is a quick compare and contrast:

‍

‍

• Kondratieff is a tool for understanding which market season we are in.
• Elliot is a way to understand how prices behave within that season.

‍

• he chart above shows the gold price over the last five years with Elliot waves plotted.
• A quick summary is that a typical wave cycle involves five impulse waves up or down. You can see those waves on the left in 2020 and right since 2024.
• There don’t seem to have been many seasons for gold over the last five years: what climate alarmists would describe as a strong secular warming trend!
• The fifth wave signals the end of a cycle, where gold seems to be at the moment.

‍

• The chart for Bitcoin over a similar period shows many more seasons and waves. The fifth wave occurred at $108,000, followed by a strong movement down, after which it has been range-bound between $80,000 and $90,000.3

‍

Pro Tip: Now might be a good time to realize some gains in gold in anticipation of a possible downward wave—a sell signal, but not all of your position.

‍

Bitcoin is a definite hold at this point. You were wise to sell above $100,000 or even in the 90s, but now, within the $80,000-$90,000 range, no strong trend is visible.

‍

What Is The Genius Act?

‍

• It stands for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins. Huh?
• The legislation is designed to create a sound regulatory framework for stablecoins.
• Stablecoins are a convenient way to trade in and out of Bitcoin—or any cryptocurrency—without converting funds back into fiat currency via traditional banking systems.
• It sounds boring, but moving cash around into and out of the banking system takes time. With stablecoins, it’s more or less instantaneous.
• Stablecoins need to be backed by undoubted collateral, usually T-bills, to make people feel secure doing this.
• Tether is the most well-known stablecoin

‍

• Tether’s margins exploded since T-Bills started earning 4%+ interest. They hold T-Bills to back the stablecoins and pay no interest, so…$144 billion of market cap at 4% interest margin…

‍

A cynic might say that regulation is about allowing banks to enter this very lucrative business. Here’s the legislative language.

‍

To qualify as a permitted payment stablecoin issuers, a person would have to incorporate in the US and then be either:

‍

• A federal qualified nonbank payment stablecoin issuer that have been approved by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) pursuant to terms set forth in the Act.
• A subsidiary of an insured depository institution that has been approved by the depository institution’s primary federal regulator (e.g., the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (“Federal Reserve”) for state member banks) pursuant to terms set forth in the Act.
• A state qualified payment stablecoin issuer that have been approved by a state payment stablecoin regulator.

‍

Here’s how vital Tether is…and how important stablecoins are about to become.

‍

‍

Takeaway: This is how the government finds another buyer for all the T-bills it needs to issue after it tells China to take back all its surplus capital.

‍

In The Markets

‍

‍

I snapped this image around midday Wednesday, four hours before the formal Whitehouse announcement of tariffs. It captures the mood perfectly.

‍

• Volatility is up over 28%
• Major indices are sharply down by 3.5-4.5%
• Precious metals have had a more volatile week, especially silver, down nearly 6%
• BTC has traded relatively better than the stock indices, and credit spreads have tightened a bit

‍

Markets are in the process of repricing earnings to reflect the impact of tariffs. This is going to take a while.

‍

What’s Next/What To Follow?

‍

If you have so far buried your head in the sand on robots, it might be time to start paying attention, because

‍

‍

This excellent piece by The Oregon Group provides a crash course with charts. It’s worth a click.

‍

The Oregon Group

Where will the metals for the robot revolution come from?

🚀 Please smash the ♡ button, subscribe for the banter ✓ and share with friends and colleagues. We are always grateful for your comments and support.Thank you for reading The Oregon Group. Subscribe for free to receive new posts and support our work…

Read more

2 months ago · 34 likes · The Oregon Group

‍

I watch this four-minute pre-market heads-up by Lance Roberts every morning —this one was Thursday morning. It’s worth a look.

‍

Lance Roberts

4-3-25 EMERGENCY UPDATE: Tariff Terror

The U.S. Tariff Rate just increased dramatically; this is the worst-case scenario. The new tariffs are stacked on top of previously-existing tariffs. These will have to be dealt with by both manufacturers and consumers: The question is whether or not the cost of the tariffs can be passed on to the consumer. This WILL drastically change companies' forwar…

Listen now

2 months ago · 5 likes · Lance Roberts

‍

Five Ways To Support MacroMashup

‍

1. If you are interested in clean energy investment advisory services, book a complimentary call here
2. Please subscribe to our new YouTube channel - or support our audio podcast by following us on Spotify or Apple - we appreciate your support!
3. If you'd like me to be a guest on your podcast or guest blog about clean energy or macroeconomics, send an email to contact@macromashup.com
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5. If you enjoy this newsletter, please email it to a friend by clicking on the button below.

Welcome to Macro Mashup, the weekly newsletter that distills the content from key voices on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and energy in less than 7 minutes. Thank you for subscribing!

‍

Macro Mashup aims to bring together the greatest minds in Finance and Economics who care deeply about current U.S. and international affairs. We study the latest news and laws that affect our economy, money, and lives, so you don't have to.

‍

Tune in to our channels and join our newsletter, podcast, or community to stay informed so you can make smarter decisions to protect your wealth.

‍

Why Do We Need A Reset?

‍

What Was The Deal After WW2?

‍

• Post-WWII U.S. Dominance: With unmatched economic strength, military power, and geographic advantage, the U.S. took the lead in shaping the postwar world order.
• Bretton Woods Conference (1944): The U.S. led 44 allied nations to create a new financial system anchored by institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and IBRD, placing the U.S. dollar at the center of global trade.
• Trade and Security Framework: The U.S. Navy secured global trade routes. Meanwhile, the U.S. rebuilt devastated economies like Germany and Japan—buying their exports to jumpstart growth and ensure prosperity.
• Cold War Bargain: In return for economic support, U.S. allies were expected to align with the West in countering Soviet communism.
• Gold Standard: The Bretton Woods system linked global currencies to the U.S. dollar, which was convertible to gold at $35/oz—a system that worked as long as the U.S. held most of the world’s gold.
• Built-In Trade Deficit: With the USD as the global reserve currency, countries sold goods to the U.S. and accumulated dollars, resulting in America's persistent structural trade deficit.
• Challenges to U.S. Dominance: As Europe and Japan recovered, U.S. dominance began to wane. Simultaneously, the cost of the Vietnam War and domestic spending like the Great Society strained U.S. finances.
• End of Gold Standard (1971): Mounting inflation and gold outflows prompted President Nixon to end gold convertibility, ushering in the era of floating exchange rates and fiat currencies.
• China’s Reentry: Initially excluded due to Taiwan’s role in Bretton Woods institutions, China began warming ties with the U.S. in the 1970s and formally joined in 1980.
• Rise of China: 2001 China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). The West hoped it would liberalize and modernize.
• Instead:
  • China became the world’s manufacturing base,
  • Western corporations offshored production to boost profits,
  • China aggressively harvested intellectual property to fuel its industrial ascent.

‍

Where We Have Ended Up

‍

Decades later, the consequences of these shifts are painfully clear:

‍

• U.S. manufacturing has been hollowed out
• Entitlement spending continues to balloon
• Defense budgets fund never-ending foreign entanglements
• The U.S. runs chronic trade deficits, deepening dependence on foreign suppliers—especially China—for:
  • Critical medical supplies (remember COVID-19?)
  • Components essential to U.S. military hardware

‍

Meanwhile, through successive financial crises and a global pandemic, we’ve:

‍

• Grown dependent on the Federal Reserve to bail out markets during every downturn,
• Lived through extended periods of zero or near-zero interest rates, allowing asset holders to borrow cheaply and build wealth,
• Racked up $36 trillion in national debt, with annual deficits now approaching $2 trillion and rising fast.

‍

‍

• We have $140 trillion in wealth

‍

‍

• But it’s not distributed evenly

‍

‍

• The bottom 50%—a large cohort of Trump’s base—does not care if the stock market gets turned upside down.

‍

The Reset Is Intended to Benefit Main Street, Not Wall Street

‍

What Has Trump Done?

‍

• He has placed a $10 trillion bet on reshaping the economy.
• His tariff strategy is blunt yet transparent—a high-stakes attempt to reset global trade rules.
• The plan? Use access to the U.S. market as leverage, offering the carrot of trade opportunity in exchange for “fairer” terms.
• His endgame is to redraw the global trade map into three camps:
  • Nations aligned with the U.S.
  • Nations that are neutral
  • Nations that have elected into trade tension with the U.S.

‍

What Does He Hope To Achieve?

‍

• Fairer trade terms: Many countries have long imposed tariffs on U.S. goods. Trump’s position is that it’s payback time.
• A sense of justice: Like the NFL player who retaliates and gets the penalty, Trump argues that he’s not the instigator, just the one finally pushing back.
• A revival of domestic manufacturing: An ambitious goal with bi-partisan support.

‍

Is The Method Worth The Madness?

‍

• Markets recoiled largely because the tariff levels were shockingly high—and markets hate surprises.
• The negotiating style is classic Trump: aim high, create chaos, and force the other side to the table.
• But the tone is aggressive, bordering on hostile. Countries have two options: retaliate or fold—neither inspiring goodwill.
• It’s less of a negotiation and more of a geopolitical standoff—Trump is holding the world to ransom
• Either:
  • Trump’s a genius
  • Trump caved to the bond vigilantes

‍

In The Markets

‍

Let’s dig into some charts.

‍

Mood: Bloodbath to Bubblebath?

‍

April 9, 2025 was the most successful day in stock markets since 2008.

‍

‍

April 10 was less reassuring:

‍

‍

The Bond Vigilantes had their way and forced Trump to cave…or he’s a genius.

‍

‍

Finally, credit spreads pay attention

‍

‍

But now something else is happening:

‍

‍

The 10-year yield is heading in the opposite direction from the USD, suggesting that something may still be rotten in the markets.

‍

What’s The Spin?

‍

The Trump administration argues that the president is a genius. He fired the tariff canon and waited for a week.

‍

Tariffs bit at midnight on April 8, 2025 - drum roll.

‍

75 nations offered to negotiate. China raised the stakes, and Trump doubled down on China.

‍

The stock market freaked. No problem.

‍

Then, the U.S. Treasury market started to go on tilt, and someone told Trump that it would melt the planet.

‍

So he told the Bond vigilantes he had their backs—just watch me. I bet he didn’t use the Watergate recorded line for that…

‍

The 10-year auction went great, and vigilantes got some tasty yields.

‍

Then Trump tweeted the rabbit from the hat: tariffs for those who played nicely were delayed for 90 days. Not China, though—bad China!

‍

The stock market gapped up. Hostage or genius? You tell me.

‍

What Should You Do?

‍

If you are confused, you are in good company:

‍

‍

The turnaround took 75 minutes.

‍

This is your playbook for the next 90 days:

‍

1. Pay attention to Truth Social—it’s your best source.
2. Don’t place big bets on market direction.
3. Place your stop loss/stop limits/puts carefully to protect your downside.
4. Sell into rallies—buy the dip, sell the rip.
5. Simplify your portfolio so you understand what you have.
6. Remember that bear markets return stocks to their rightful owners—don’t give yours away.

‍

What’s Next/What To Follow

‍

If you want a 15-minute breakdown of what one experienced investor thinks might be going on with Trump and the markets, go no farther than this excellent piece from Mark Tilbury

‍

‍

This podcast by Adam Taggart has an intereview with Lawrence Lepard (@LawrenceLepard on X) where they discuss Lawrence’s latest book, The Big Print.

‍

‍

The first half of the book diagnoses how we got into the situation that needs resetting. The second half proposes some quite radical solutions.

‍

Five Ways To Support MacroMashup

‍

1. If you are interested in clean energy investment advisory services, book a complimentary call here
2. Please subscribe to our new YouTube channel - or support our audio podcast by following us on Spotify or Apple - we appreciate your support!
3. If you'd like me to be a guest on your podcast or guest blog about clean energy or macroeconomics, send an email to contact@macromashup.com
4. Share this newsletter on X here
5. If you enjoy this newsletter, please email it to a friend by clicking on the button below.

Welcome to Macro Mashup, the weekly newsletter that distills the content from key voices on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and energy in less than 7 minutes. Thank you for subscribing!

‍

Macro Mashup aims to bring together the greatest minds in Finance and Economics who care deeply about current U.S. and international affairs. We study the latest news and laws that affect our economy, money, and lives, so you don't have to.

‍

Tune in to our channels and join our newsletter, podcast, or community to stay informed so you can make smarter decisions to protect your wealth.

‍

‍

Gold is surging. Treasuries are wobbling. But let’s not bury the dollar just yet.

‍

Three years of decline.

‍

That’s what the U.S. dollar has seen.

‍

It’s enough to get the headlines rolling:

‍

“Is the Dollar Dying?”
“Gold Soars as Faith in USD Falters.”
“De-Dollarization Begins.”

‍

But while fear sells, facts matter. And the truth is more complicated—and more interesting.

‍

Let’s break it down.

‍

What’s Driving The Dollar’s Slide?

‍

There are a few major culprits:

‍

• Tariffs and trade tensions. U.S. trade policy has become more erratic, spooking markets and international partners.
• Investor exit. Confidence in U.S. government debt has taken a hit. Treasuries have sold off. Stocks followed. So did the dollar.
• A flight to gold. Central banks and private investors are buying gold aggressively. Gold is up 53% year-over-year, outpacing the S&P 500 by a mile in 2025.

‍

‍

And perhaps most telling of all: the dollar is no longer moving in tandem with 10-year Treasury yields.

‍

Usually, they rise and fall together. Lately, they’ve diverged. That’s rare—and troubling.

‍

‍

Red line is USD; blue line is the 10-year Treasury yield.

‍

Why The Dollar Still Matters

‍

Despite the weakness, the dollar remains the core of the global financial system. It is:

‍

• The default currency for global trade
• The anchor for energy pricing (like oil)
• The world’s primary reserve currency

‍

There is no replacement waiting in the wings. Not the euro. Not the yuan. Not bitcoin. Not even gold.

‍

A Strong Dollar Can Still Break Things

‍

Let’s not forget: a too-strong dollar can wreak havoc.

‍

• Countries that borrow in USD feel more pressure when the dollar rises.
• Oil-importing nations see prices spike.
• U.S. companies exporting abroad get punished by unfavorable FX rates.

‍

In 1985, when the dollar hit peak strength under Paul Volcker, the world had had enough. This led to the Plaza Accord, in which major economies coordinated to weaken the dollar.

‍

We could be heading toward a similar moment—Mar-a-Lago Accords?

‍

What’s Different This Time? One Word: China

‍

China doesn’t want to replace the dollar but wants to weaken its grip.

‍

This chart tells the story:

‍

1. U.S. still dominates GDP, stock, and bond markets.
2. In real terms (PPP), China is closing in fast—thanks to lower costs and faster output.
3. China makes ~30% of the world’s goods. That kind of leverage can pressure the dollar over time.

‍

Still, China’s renminbi isn’t built for global reserve status. Not yet.

‍

But Beijing is building alternatives—trade in yuan, digital currency experiments, and deals that bypass the dollar.

‍

It’s a long game. And one worth watching.

‍

What Could Actually Kill The Dollar?

‍

Here’s the real risk: not China. Not inflation. Not even gold.

‍

It’s the U.S. itself.

‍

The dollar is mighty because people believe in it—and in the system behind it.

‍

That trust erodes if America:

‍

• Undermines the rule of law
• Turns trade into a mafia-style negotiation
• Burns alliances for short-term gain
• Lets debt spiral without a credible plan

‍

Lose credibility, and no currency is safe—not even the dollar.

‍

Final Thought

‍

The U.S. dollar may be down. But it’s not out.

‍

Not yet.

‍

There’s no real alternative waiting to take the throne. But the pressure is rising. And if America wants to keep its currency at the center of the global economy, it needs to earn that position—every single day.

‍

In The Markets

‍

‍

Continued volatility—every day, so it barely makes sense to post an update.

‍

The markets are trading on headlines:

‍

• Nvidia’s write-off—stocks down
• Talks with Japan are going well—markets up

‍

Here’s one thing worth looking at: Someone has been doing well since Liberation Day.

‍

‍

Yes! The line going straight up since April 2nd is Trump Media. The U.S. dollar and stocks are down.

‍

Who’s winning?

‍

What’s Next/What To Follow

‍

The first is Hidden Forces

‍

I can’t recommend Demetri Kofinas’ work highly enough. His model is free for the first hour, with no ads. If you want the second hour, which includes a deeper discussion, you have to pay.

‍

I encourage you to sign up for Hidden Forces. Demetri is a great interviewer and a thoughtful host, and the preparation is impressive.

‍

The takeaways are:

‍

• The WhiteHouse meeting with Zelensky signaled a schism with Europe—capital is going home
• Capital’s search for the location where it is best treated creates massive cross-border flows, which are spiking currency volatility.
• Current account deficit’s mirror image is capital account surpluses (buying Treasuries and U.S. stocks). If we aim to reduce one, we should also expect the other to decrease.

‍

The next is Lex Fridman

I would not recommend the entirety of this podcast. The conversation starts at 30:00. It’s worth listening to the first 20 minutes after that.

‍

It’s a great example of a leader laying out very, very specific set of steps and a time-frame for executing his plan for Argentina.

‍

If only our leaders could do the same.

‍

Five Ways To Support MacroMashup

‍

1. If you are interested in clean energy investment advisory services, book a complimentary call here
2. Please subscribe to our new YouTube channel - or support our audio podcast by following us on Spotify or Apple - we appreciate your support!
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Welcome to Macro Mashup, the weekly newsletter that distills the content from key voices on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and energy in less than 7 minutes. Thank you for subscribing!

‍

Macro Mashup aims to bring together the greatest minds in Finance and Economics who care deeply about current U.S. and international affairs. We study the latest news and laws that affect our economy, money, and lives, so you don't have to.

‍

Tune in to our channels and join our newsletter, podcast, or community to stay informed so you can make smarter decisions to protect your wealth.

‍

Markets moved 2,000 points this week. Here’s why that doesn’t mean what you think—and what to do about it.

‍

This Week’s Markets: A Love-Hate Relationship with the Narrative

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Investors saw the full emotional spectrum play out this week.

‍

On Monday, markets plunged. By Wednesday, they soared. On Thursday, they steadied. The trigger? Headlines, not fundamentals.

‍

President Trump called Fed Chair Jerome Powell a “loser” and “Mr. Too Late.” The Dow dropped 970 points. Gold hit new highs. Safe havens surged. Then, within 48 hours, Trump changed his tone: Powell’s job was safe. China trade talks were “nice.” Tariffs might be coming down. Markets rallied hard. Gold sold off.

‍

If this feels like whiplash, it’s because it is. And it’s not new..

‍

Narratives Don’t Lead—They Follow

‍

Here’s the thing: markets don’t marry narratives. Neither should you.

‍

Each week, there’s a new storyline:

‍

• Sell America—dump bonds, stocks, the dollar.
• Buy gold—it’s a hedge against the end of the world.
• Trump is torching global alliances.
• Tariffs are freezing supply chains.

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Sometimes these are true. Sometimes they’re noise. Always, they’re fleeting.

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Markets digest narratives like memes—they go viral, then fade. Being early to abandon a narrative is often more profitable than sticking around for its downfall.

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What Just Happened (And What Didn’t)

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Let’s look at this week in numbers:

‍

• Monday:
  • Dow down ~970 pts
  • S&P 500 down ~2.4%
  • Nasdaq down ~2.6%
  • USD drops to 3-year low
  • Gold spikes to an all-time-high
• Tuesday:
  • Dow +1,000 pts
  • S&P and Nasdaq rebound nearly 3%
  • Treasury hints at a China trade thaw
• Wednesday:
  • Trump reassures: Fed Chair stays, tariffs may fall
  • Gold sells off ~3%
  • Silver rallies sharply
• Thursday:
  • Stocks rallied for a third day in a row—the last time that happened was March 26th
  • Silver eased a little, and gold continued up
  • Credit spreads narrowed
  • Overall, Trump mainly focused on foreign policy and left the markets alone

‍

This isn’t about fundamentals. It’s narrative whiplash. And it’s dominating the price action.

‍

Gold Retreats. Silver Rises. Here’s Why.

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As equities crumbled, gold absorbed the fear. But once the narrative turned, so did capital flows. Investors hiding out in gold used the rally to take profits and, when stocks rebounded, used those profits to buy equities.

‍

Silver, often the neglected sibling, is getting more attention:

‍

• Half its value is tied to industrial demand
• A tariff rollback would increase demand
• Silver remains historically undervalued vs. gold

‍

Silver’s smaller market cap also means it reacts faster to shifts in supply and demand.

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Wall Street Isn’t Buying It

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Since April 8, the bond market has been challenging the Trump narrative. And now, Wall Street is retaking the reins.

‍

‍

Yes, the President can tweet. But the Fed sets policy. And the market is watching Powell, not the press briefings.

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Why Are Markets Fighting Back?

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1. Policy Uncertainty – Businesses can’t plan. Markets can’t price.
2. Fed Independence – If you aim at Powell, don’t miss.
3. Volatility Surge – Spiking VIX = investor doubt.
4. Capital Rotation – Money is flowing fast—winners are temporary.

‍

Trump vs. Powell: Act II

‍

‍

This isn’t the first round.

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• December 2018: Powell hikes. Trump lashes out. Market drops.
• 2019: Fed cuts four times. S&P ends up +29%.
• March 2020: Pandemic panic (-34%), then Fed stimulus. S&P up +18%.

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Each time, the narrative flipped. Each time, the market moved before the story played out.

‍

Investing in a Post-Narrative World

‍

Want to survive? Here’s your playbook:

‍

• Stay flexible – Agility > conviction
• Favor data over drama – Narrative is noise
• Diversify – Don’t anchor to one asset class
• Buy panic, sell hype – Contrarian wins
• History is helpful, not predictive – Rhymes, not repeats
• Find a source you trust and stick to it—I recommend one below.

‍

In The Markets—Chart to Watch

‍

‍

The S&P 500 bottomed near ~4,985—a rare three-standard-deviation move. Technicians are now watching the “death cross”: when the 50-day MA slips below the 200-day MA.

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It could mean more downside. Or it could be the beginning of a reversal. Either way, use rallies to trim risk and rebalance.

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Bottom Line

‍

Don’t fall in love with the narrative. Swipe left when the story stops serving you.

‍

Markets aren’t loyal to one version of reality, and neither should your portfolio.

‍

What’s Next/What To Follow

‍

For those looking for a great perspective on the macro picture and a very reasonably priced framework for structuring their investments, Darius Dale is the man. I subscribe to his service and follow his KISS framework. The Value/Price relationship is outstanding.

‍

‍

If you want to get some great insights into the whole macro spectrum—including Bitcoin—there is no better place to go than this brilliant conversation between Natalie Brunell and Lyn Alden.

‍

‍

Enjoyed this newsletter? Get Involved.

‍

Subscribe to MacroMashup for market breakdowns like this, straight to your inbox—without the noise.

‍

1. If you want to get involved in clean energy and take advantage of the generous tax credits the government offers, book a complimentary call with my advisory firm, Dakota Ridge Capital here
2. Do you prefer video? You can now watch MacroMashup on our YouTube channel - or, if audio is your preference, tune in on Spotify or Apple
3. We are always open to collaborations, whether clean energy or macroeconomics. Just send an email to contact@macromashup.com
4. If you enjoy this newsletter, share it on X here, or email it to a friend by clicking on the button below.

Welcome to Macro Mashup, the weekly newsletter that distills the content from key voices on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and energy in less than 7 minutes. Thank you for subscribing!

‍

Macro Mashup aims to bring together the greatest minds in Finance and Economics who care deeply about current U.S. and international affairs. We study the latest news and laws that affect our economy, money, and lives, so you don't have to.

‍

Tune in to our channels and join our newsletter, podcast, or community to stay informed so you can make smarter decisions to protect your wealth.

‍

Trump’s Tariff Retreat: China Plays the Long Game

‍

Sun Tzu advised against direct confrontation when you’re at a disadvantage. A 145% tariff? That’s not subtle.

‍

What’s Happening?

‍

• Trump says a deal with China is inevitable—but tariffs won’t be eliminated.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls the move “basically an embargo.”
• U.S. container traffic is down 64%—ports are empty, shelves will be too.
• Small business owners are eating inventory and facing shutdowns.
• 78% of U.S. military weapons rely on Chinese materials. That’s a problem.

‍

Also: China controls rare earth exports. And reshoring isn’t exactly a weekend project.

‍

Who Really Needs a Deal More?

‍

• China has a mountain of U.S. Treasuries and U.S. stocks.
• It manufactures the goods we and the goods we need to make goods.
• It’s entangled in our military supply chain.

‍

Short answer: China has the leverage—all of it.

‍

How Trump Accidentally Helped Elect Mark Carney

‍

In one of the wildest political pivots in Canadian history, Donald Trump made himself a campaign issue north of the border—and it backfired.

‍

Quick rewind:

‍

• Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives held a 25-point lead in polls.
• Trump called Canada’s border “artificially drawn” and hinted at annexation.
• Canadians rallied behind Carney, former Bank of England governor, and political newcomer.
• Carney framed the election as a fight for sovereignty—not policy.

‍

Result: Liberals win 167 seats. Not an outright majority, but a win—and a direct slap at Trump’s rhetoric.

‍

Fallout:

‍

• Tariffs incoming on minerals and energy.
• Intelligence sharing (Five Eyes) cooling down.
• Canadian trade reorients toward Europe and Asia.

‍

Trump may have redefined the U.S.-Canada relationship—but not in a good way.

‍

Renewables Work… Until They Don’t

‍

Spain and Portugal just experienced one of their worst blackouts. The reason? Cloudy skies.

‍

The chain reaction:

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• Solar output dropped 15 GW in 5 seconds—60% of Spain’s electricity load.
• No spinning generators means no inertia, no grid stability.
• Water stopped pumping. Streets went dark.
• The backup plan? Didn’t exist. Batteries weren’t enough.

‍

Let’s do the math:
‍
To fill a 15 GW hole over 4 hours, you’d need 60 GWh of storage.
The entire U.S. battery fleet is currently 37 GWh.

‍

Takeaway:
‍
A 100% renewable grid is not possible without:

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• Grid-forming inverters
• Synchronous condensers
• Massive storage
• Real redundancy

‍

California, take notes.

‍

Washington Update: The Tax Cut Tug-of-War

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Trump’s fiscal legacy hinges on the next reconciliation bill. Progress is murky.

‍

The ask:

‍

• Permanently extend TCJA tax cuts (valued at $4.5 trillion).
• Eliminate federal taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security income.
• Dismantle and repackage parts of the Inflation Reduction Act.

‍

The holdup:

‍

• Memorial Day was the goal. Now, July 4th is the maybe.
• House wants $1.5 trillion in spending cuts.
• Senate? Just $4 billion. That's a canyon, not a gap.
  

‍

Bonus drama:
‍
‍
DOGE’s original $2 trillion chainsaw program has been slashed to $160 billion—some ongoing. Musk has quietly exited stage left—to fix the Tesla stock freefall.

‍

In The Markets

‍

Perceptions vs. Reality—who’s winning?

‍

Major indices have recovered all their losses since Liberation Day.

‍

Retail kept buying, while institutions squealed.

‍

The developing consensus that tariffs are getting diluted, plus robust tech earnings, drove stocks nearly 9% higher over eight sessions.

‍

‍

The capital to fuel that run came from gold (gold line, chart below, left-hand axis), while bitcoin (blue line, right-hand axis) diverged and continued upwards with stocks, creeping back close to $100,000. Real gold and digital gold are parting company.

‍

‍

Are we out of the woods yet?

‍

Far from it.

‍

Forecasts among brokerage houses and betting markets about a recession are beginning to align:

‍

• Kalshi: -0.6%
• Goldman Sachs: -0.8%
• Morgan Stanley: -1.4%
• Polymarket: -1% to -2%

‍

Actual Q1 GDP came in at -0.3%. Kalshi, the NYC prediction market, was closest. The market can price anything but uncertainty. If Trump—or Bessent—were to articulate a plan and stick to it, the market would likely push higher.

‍

Businesses need tariff deals quickly, or they will deplete their inventories with premium-priced replacements stranded at ports in China. Shelves will empty.🤞

‍

What’s Next/What To Follow

‍

Love them or roll your eyes—these four keep dominating the tech-business podcast charts. Loud, opinionated, worth skimming at least once a month.

‍

‍

Brunell interviews Pysh, a former helicopter commander and current Bitcoin VC. Not into crypto? Might not be for you. But if Bitcoin’s your thing, this is essential listening.

‍

‍

Enjoyed this newsletter? Get Involved.

‍

Subscribe to MacroMashup for market breakdowns like this, straight to your inbox—without the noise.

‍

1. If you want to get involved in clean energy and take advantage of the generous tax credits the government offers, book a complimentary call with my advisory firm, Dakota Ridge Capital here
2. Do you prefer video? You can now watch MacroMashup on our YouTube channel - or, if audio is your preference, tune in on Spotify or Apple
3. We are always open to collaborations, whether clean energy or macroeconomics. Just send an email to contact@macromashup.com
4. If you enjoy this newsletter, share it on X here, or email it to a friend by clicking on the button below.