Gold & Geopolitics: The Quiet Currency War

Markets in the Mirror: When Sentiment, Policy, and Data Collide

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The past two months delivered a masterclass in market psychology.

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April gave us panic.

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May gave us euphoria.

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Neither was tethered to fundamentals.

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From algorithmic stampedes to political noise fatigue, investors are relearning the painful truth: narrative is not data. Here’s what really moved markets—and what you can learn from the misfires.

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Greed vs. Fear: A 67-Point Mood Swing

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In just six weeks, the CNN Fear & Greed Index swung from 4 (Extreme Fear) to 71 (Greed).

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That 67-point lurch was more violent than anything we saw during the 2022 bear market.
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• April: Tariff shocks and a Moody’s downgrade spooked markets. The S&P 500 fell to 4,160, wiping out $9 trillion in equity value.
• May: Dip buyers and institutional flows stepped in. The S&P rallied 17% off the lows, adding $400B in market cap per day.
• Even Bitcoin wasn’t immune—its Fear & Greed Index surged from 10 to 66.

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Lesson: When sentiment hits extremes, it’s often a signal to do the opposite.

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April’s fear was a contrarian buy.

May’s greed may be an early warning.

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Trump’s Tariff Theater: The T.A.C.O. Pattern

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T.A.C.O. = Trump Always Chickens Out

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That’s how Barclays now labels Trump’s recurring trade threats: high on volume, soft on follow-through.

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Markets are adapting:
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• Tariff noise rattles soft data (like sentiment surveys), but barely touches hard data (earnings, rates, trade flows).
• The VIX barely flinched in May. Wall Street seems to view Trump’s bluster as theater, not policy.

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Takeaway: Investors may be desensitized to political shocks—a risky complacency if a real crisis breaks through.

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Your Energy Partners

We help banks, family offices, HNWIs, non-profits-and developers in making strategic investments in clean energy projects that create tax credits to lower investors’ taxt liability while providing essential capital for developers.

• Clean Energy Capital
• Clean Energy Project Advisory
• Clean Energy Tax Savings

Book a Call

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Dalio’s Crisis of Credibility
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Ray Dalio warned in May of an “imminent financial crisis.”

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Reality had other plans:
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• The S&P rose 6.2%.
• Bitcoin rallied 14%.
• Corporate earnings climbed 8% YoY.
• U.S. tax receipts hit a record $4.9T (FY 2025).

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Not the first time:
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• In 1981, Dalio predicted a depression. A bull market followed.
• Between 2023–2025, while warning of collapse, the S&P returned 34%.

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Key Miss: Dalio’s models overweight debt and geopolitics—but underestimate resilient fundamentals like earnings, cash flow, and innovation.

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Even legends can lag reality. Don’t outsource your thinking to macro celebrities.

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Bifurcated Markets: Institutions vs. Headlines

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We’re in a two-track market:
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• Institutions are trading on yields, cash flow, and volumes.
• Retail investors are reacting to headlines and vibes.

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Opportunity lives in the gap.

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Those who can tell signal from noise—win.

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3 Principles for Market Sanity

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1. Sentiment is cyclical
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 • Use extremes in fear/greed as contrarian indicators—not confirmation.

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2. Political noise fades

 • Earnings and interest rates outlast soundbites.

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3. Data > Gurus

 • Build a system based on signals—not talking heads.

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AI Is Quietly Rewriting Strategy—Far Beyond Search

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Forget chatbots. AI’s real revolution is reshaping business, medicine, and media behind the scenes.

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1. AI-Powered Business Strategy

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Upload customer data + value props → Get instant go-to-market plans, pitch decks, and brand strategy.

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2. Diagnostics Without Waiting Rooms
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• Spectral AI’s DeepView diagnoses burn wounds with 95%+ accuracy.
• AI tools now review labs, symptoms, and history—no co-pay, no waiting.
• AlphaSense automates medical research at enterprise scale.

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3. Earnings Call Disruption
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• Zoom and Klarna used AI avatars in investor calls.
• AI highlights facts, strips fluff, and flags evasive statements.

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4. Automated Podcasting at Scale
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• Tools like Jellypod can clone your voice, convert articles to episodes, and publish—no mic needed.

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5. The Human-AI Imperative
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• Interpret: AI finds patterns. You apply meaning.
• Audit: AI has blind spots. You provide context.
• Leverage: Scale thought leadership, don’t outsource it.

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Charts/In the Markets

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Silver: a hot week relative to its big brother, gold

• Silver bugs have been calling for a breakout for…a decade.
• It broke $35/oz - next stop $50.
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Watch Relative Value—Focus on The Ratios

• USD crushed by gold—last 5 years.
• USD crushed by Bitcoin—last 5 years
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• Divide one asset priced in USD.
• By another asset priced in USD.
• Takes the depreciating USD out of the equation.
• Leaves just relative strength.

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What’s Next/What To Watch
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• Check out Jim Bianco on the consistently excellent Forward Guidance podcast discussing how 5% 10-year rates will become the new floor.
• For a check-in with Freedom Caucus member Senator Ron Johnson, watch the boys at All-In figure out the Senate fate of One Big Beautiful Bill.
• Don’t forget to compare the Non-Farm Payrolls this Friday, June 6th—consensus 125,000—130,000 with April’s 177,000. If the NFP number undershoots, the markets will likely trade up on the expectation that the Fed is more likely to ease, and vice versa.
• And, get some popcorn and watch the Trump/Musk relationship meltdown on X—with the Tesla share price…

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Enjoyed this newsletter? Get Involved.
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• Subscribe to MacroMashup: one email a week, zero noise.
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• Collaborate with us at contact@macromashup.com

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NVIDIA earnings took center stage. Powell stayed steady. Trump swung a hammer at clean energy. And bond investors in the U.S. and Japan are getting nervous for very different reasons.

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Welcome back to MacroMashup—the sharpest 7-minute read in macro. No fluff. Just signal.

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NVIDIA: The New Fed Day for Tech?

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Forget Powell, Wall Street’s real Fed Day this week was NVIDIA’s earnings call.

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• Revenue: $44.06B, up 69% YoY
  
• Gross profit: $26.7B (60.5% margin)
  
• Net income: $18.8B (including a $4.5B charge on Trump-era export restrictions)
  
• Data center growth: +73%

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Markets treated NVIDIA as a proxy for:

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• AI investment cycles
  
• Big Tech capex
  
• Global sentiment on semiconductors, especially China’s $50B AI market

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Despite risks, implied volatility was down (-7.4%), well below historical norms (-11.4%).

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CEO Jensen Huang = dynamic signal.

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Trump = chaotic noise.

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Powell = steady… but surprisingly volatile.

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(86% of S&P rallies follow rate cuts. Powell drives more volatility than his predecessors.)

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Not Everyone’s Impressed by Powell

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Former Dallas Fed insider Danielle DiMartino Booth argues the Fed is already behind the curve:

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• Recession began in Q1 2024 (according to her metrics)
• Bankruptcies now match 2008 levels
• Household delinquencies are spiking
• Credit conditions are tightening
• Small business sentiment collapsing

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Her view:

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• Rates must drop to 2%—now
• Fed should shift from lagging data to real-time metrics
• Delays risk systemic damage

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One take? Yes. A smart one? Absolutely.

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Are Tariffs Really Inflationary? Not Always.

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The common narrative says yes. The data says… maybe not.

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• Substitution & demand destruction keep prices in check
• Trump-era tariffs = short-term supply shock, not long-term inflation
• Goldman Sachs projects PCE inflation peaking at 3.5% in 2025, easing to 2.6% in 2026

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But margins get squeezed. Labor takes the hit.

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‍Breaking: The U.S. Court of International Trade just ruled that Trump overstepped his authority under the 1977 emergency law. Some tariffs will be unwound within 10 days.

Breaking (Part 2): A Federal Appeals Court allows tariffs to stay in effect…for now. Calling the Supremes.

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Lousy Bond Auctions

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Japan & U.S. Bond Investors are in a bad mood:

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• The 20-year and 40-year JGB (Japanese Government Bonds) auctions (May 2025) saw the lowest demand since July 2024, amid concerns over fiscal sustainability.
• Yields surged: 20-year 2.56%; 30-year JGB yields hit 3.14%, while 40-year yields spiked to 3.6%**, all-time highs.
• The U.S. is worse: 10-year yields are above 4.5%, and long-term yields (20- and 30-year) jump above 5%.

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Same result, different reasons:

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Net International Investment Position (NIIP): Structural Divergence

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• Japan = world’s largest creditor—owns $3.48 trillion more in foreign assets than foreign owns Japanese assets.
• U.S. = world’s largest debtor—foreigners own $26 trillion more U.S. assets than the U.S. owns foreign assets.
• It’s all about persistent trade surpluses for Japan and opposite for the U.S.
• Japan’s Debt/GDP ratio is way higher than the U.S., but adjusting for the NIIP…

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Japan’s problem?

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• Aging population.
• Policy uncertainty.

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U.S. problem?

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• Political gridlock.
• Lack of political will to fix the deficit.
• Running out of investors to buy its debt.

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Bigger problem?

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• Declining confidence in USD and fiat systems.
• China and BRICS are building BRICS Pay, which threatens the USD and SWIFT—it settles in 7 seconds.

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Clean Energy Just Got Hit With a Sledgehammer

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The House passed the One Big, Beautiful Bill—and it slashed many of the Inflation Reduction Act’s signature green incentives:

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Clean Energy Production/Investment Credits:

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• Immediate termination, unless construction starts within 60 days of enactment and operation by 12/31/28.

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Residential/Commercial Energy Credits

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• Expire for property placed in service after 12/31/25—ends third-party leasing.

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EV Credits and Chargers

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• Ends for most EVs and chargers after 12/31/25—limited exception for some EVs until 12/31/26.

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Advanced Manufacturing Credit (45X)

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• Phaseout by 2032.
• Transferability ends after 2027.

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Clean Fuel Credit (45Z)

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• Extended to 2031.
• Stricter sourcing and emissions rules.
• Transferability ends after 2027.

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Nuclear Incentives (45U)

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• Maintained/enhanced.
• No phaseout until 2031.

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New "Foreign Entity of Concern" (FEOC) restrictions

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• Limit foreign ownership and control in U.S. clean energy projects, primarily targeting Chinese involvement.
• Effective 1/1/26.

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The bill now moves to the Senate, where substantial amendments are expected/hoped for—unless Trump can strongarm Senators too…

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In the Markets: Who’s Right—Danielle or Darius?

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Two respected voices. Two different reads on the economy.

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Danielle DiMartino Booth

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• Sees hard data turning south: bankruptcies, job losses, loan delinquencies
• Believes a recession already started
• Advocates for urgent cuts

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Darius Dale

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• Says soft data is noisy, but the hard data remains solid
• Sees fiscal and monetary stimulus holding the floor
• Follows a signal-based investment system, and puts money behind it

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Lesson?

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Without a system, you’re just reacting to headlines. And that’s a losing strategy.

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If your only signal is your newsfeed or podcast queue, you’re trading blind.

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Weekly charts + market data.

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🎧 Want to hear both sides? We’ve linked Danielle’s and Darius’s latest interviews here:

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How do you decide who’s right?

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Darius Dale manages money, his own included, based on the signals his system provides. Here is his take.

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Danielle DiMartino Booth advises money managers. Check out her viewpoints here.

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Who Owes What To Whom

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Market charts this week are largely “unch”: up, down, leadership changes, capital rotation etc.

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This one, though, is worth a look. The blue line—massively negative at $26 trillion—is the net international investment position of the U.S. compared to the rest of the world.

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America is truly exceptional…

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Enjoyed this newsletter? Get Involved.

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• Subscribe to MacroMashup: one email a week, zero noise.
• Watch us on YouTube, or tune in via Spotify / Apple‍
• Collaborate with us at contact@macromashup.com

Trump’s tax play is here. And yes, it’s big, beautiful, and completely unaffordable.

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BREAKING NEWS: The House just passed the One Big, Beautiful Tax Bill—with last-minute concessions that rewrote the rules for clean energy investment. We at Dakota Ridge Capital are monitoring the situation closely and sending timely updates to our mailing list. Read more here.

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Key Provisions:

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• Middle-class relief: Expanded credits, lower rates for households under $200K
• Business perks: R&D credits, full expensing, and factory-friendly deductions.
• Infrastructure money: Roads, energy, digital upgrades.
• Tariff buffer: Assistance for workers and industries exposed to global trade.
• Retirement twist: MAGA accounts ($5,000/yr, with $1,000 seed for newborns).
• Top tax rate stays at 37%—no reversion to 39.6%.
• IRA trimmed, but not gutted.

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But the trade-off? A deficit surge.

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Markets love tax cuts. Bonds, not so much.

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Markets Turn Risk-On—But Bond Traders Aren’t Buying It

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Global growth is still slowing:

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• IMF, World Bank, and OECD all trimmed forecasts.
• Global GDP for 2025: 2.3%—not keeping pace with inflation.
• U.S. expected to grow 2.2%, EU just 1.1%, Eurozone a weak 0.9%.

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What changed? April 7 happened.

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• Stocks crashed, bonds buckled.
• Gold soared. Bitcoin held.
• The screen was red, and portfolios bled.
• Tariff worries seeped into global trade forecasts.

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But since then…

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• Tariff ‘deals’ appeared quickly.
• Equities rebounded fast.
• Bonds? Still nervous.
• MOVE index (bond volatility) spiked above 135—a level that triggers action from someone, somewhere

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Why the divergence?

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• U.S. debt issuance: ~$1T rolling over in 30 days
• Credit downgrade.
• Inflation still sticky, Fed still frozen.
• Deficits projected to grow.

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Meanwhile, while stocks have been pulling capital from gold and silver, all three began to trade up together…until stocks got hit by a weak bond auction.

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Middle East Deals: Big Numbers, Bigger Implications

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The Gulf is betting on U.S. stability—with trillions.

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Defense

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• Saudi Arabia: $142B in U.S. defense contracts.
• Qatar: $96B deal including Boeing’s largest aircraft order and $42B in weapons.

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Tech & AI

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• Saudi’s DataVolt to invest $20B in U.S. AI/data centers.
• Google, Oracle, AMD, Salesforce, Uber: $80B in joint U.S.-Saudi initiatives.

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Energy & Infra

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• GE Vernova exporting $14.2B in gas turbines.
• U.S. firms tapped to build airports, parks, entire cities in the Gulf.

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Financial & Real Estate

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• Qatar’s direct investment in the U.S. hit $3.3B in 2023—and growing.
• Gulf sovereigns signal this is just the start.

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Investor Takeaway: Watch defense, tech, and infra stocks with MENA exposure.

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Still Unsure What To Do With Your Portfolio? Start Here.

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April 7 was a gut check. Remember how you felt?

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• Did you panic sell?
• Dump everything into cash?
• Swear off risk?
• Or did you double down with a plan?

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Now that the dust has settled, ask:

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• Were your decisions signal-based—or emotion-based?
• Were you following narratives, or following a system?

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The Case for Systems Over Sentiment

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What works:

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• A framework for identifying market regimes (growth, inflation, liquidity)
• Macro factor tracking (yields, spreads, commodities)
• Regime-based asset allocation rules
• An overlay that adapts for momentum, volatility, and price

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There are many options—just don’t fly blind.

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In the Charts

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• S&P 500: Net positive YTD, despite the noise
• 10-Year Treasury: Still elevated, still flashing caution.
• Weak 20-year Treasury auction spooks bonds and weighs on stocks.
• Gold vs. Bitcoin: Volatility gap narrowing—watch this pair.
• USD: Direction unclear, but Treasury actions suggest soft-dollar bias.

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• Volatility in both stocks and bonds spiked during the tariff tantrum.
• MOVE Index (bond equivalent of VIX): Spiked in April, now retreating, but still above comfort levels.
• MOVE hitting 135 → alarm bells and some version of the cavalry arrives.
• Lower volatility helped stocks rebound—why not bonds?

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• Elevated yields? Dealers going short ahead of the auction nudges the price down/yield up and locks in a profit.
• Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. credit rating?
• Big deficit worries—the One Big, Beautiful Tax Bill will not fix that.
• Treasury market struggles show up in weak 20-year auction (mentioned 3x because…).

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Weekly Highlights

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We’re proud to share this in-depth feature in Clockwork’s latest blog: “The Hidden Engine of Clean Energy.” Dive into how Dakota Ridge Capital is helping shape the future of renewables through innovative tax equity strategies.

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Watch or listen to Episode 4 of the MacroMashup podcast: featuring Manish Jain, CEO and Founder of Mezzi Wealth. If you’re looking for a way to take control of your investments, give it a listen. Manish and his team give you a fantastic tool to organize and understand your investment portfolio.

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Watch or listen to Dr. Pippa Malmgren on tariffs, power politics, and what the headlines aren’t saying.

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Enjoyed this newsletter? Get Involved.

‍

• Subscribe to MacroMashup: one email a week, zero noise.
• Watch us on YouTube, or tune in via Spotify / Apple
• Collaborate with us at contact@macromashup.com

‍

Your Energy Partners

We help banks, family offices, HNWIs, non-profits-and developers in making strategic investments in clean energy projects that create tax credits to lower investors’ taxt liability while providing essential capital for developers.

• Clean Energy Capital
• Clean Energy Project Advisory
• Clean Energy Tax Savings

Book a Call