Revisions, Rallies, and the Return of the (Not Dead) Cycle

September’s “curse” is famous. 2025’s setup looks different. A dovish/succumbing Fed, abundant liquidity, and resilient services spend are colliding with well-telegraphed fear about stretched valuations. When the crowd leans one way, the tape often runs the other.

Fed: From Theater to Action

• Pivot Watch: August minutes flagged “modestly restrictive”; Powell has effectively pre-announced a September cut and markets have priced it.
  
• Labor & Growth: Softer prints and global wobble reduce the case for “higher for longer.” Unemployed > job openings for 1st time since April 2021.
  
• Liquidity: US money-market funds still sit on $7T+; buybacks pause into blackout and re-emerge late Sep/early Oct.
  

Bottom line: The September jinx meets a dovish Fed and dry powder. Consensus for weakness is crowded and may break the historical pattern.

Metals: Sleeping Giants Wake

Gold

• Breakout: >$3,500/oz; ATH in USD and across many local currencies.
  
• Flows & Drivers: Central-bank accumulation (China/EMs), lower yields, softer USD, geopolitical risk bid.
  
• Positioning: ETFs swing to sustained net inflows; upside options skew (more demand for call options); above all major moving averages.
  
• Allocation Shift: Large US wealth platforms slide 5–10% gold into models for “resilience.”

Silver

• Follow-through: >$41/oz, tracking gold’s technicals.
  
• Industrial Pull: EV/solar demand up double digits YoY; inventories at multi-decade lows; newly listed as a critical mineral.
  
• Beta Trade: Silver–gold ratio compressing; silver’s technical breakthroughs are historic, and signal strong upside from here..
  

Macro read: It’s more than a trade—confidence in fiat is eroding; portfolios are reaching for timeless hedges against inevitable monetary debasement.

Bitcoin: Quiet Coil, Loud Potential

• Volatility: Realized and implied at multi-year lows.
  
• Range: $108–111k consolidation.
  
• Under the Hood: Whale accumulation highest YTD; miner difficulty up (i.e., because more miners are at work, the network makes it more difficult to find a block); options skew tilts bullish; “max pain” (the price at which the largest number of open options expire worthless) implies bang if a catalyst hits (traders on the wrong side have to rebalance quickly).
  
• Energy Value: Capriole’s Charles Edwards pegs “energy value” > $160k.
  

Trade watch: Smart money rolls and adds. Catalysts—regulatory clarity, ETF flows, global easing—sit just offstage.

Climate Wars: DOE Sparks a Policy Brawl

• DOE View: Warming’s economic damage may be lower than assumed; over-stringent mitigation can backfire; grid reliability needs urgency.
  
• Pushback: Media calls it optimistic/politicized; greens push for realism and decry the blatant popular narrative disregard.
  
• Capital Flows: Despite rhetoric, money follows policy—utilities and IPPs accelerate procurement into expected incentives.
  

Keep in focus: The debate polarizes; spending doesn’t. Utilities become political footballs as they juggle rules vs. rates.

Tariffs: Legal Setback, Policy Not Done

• Ruling: A US appeals court clipped emergency-based tariff powers—curbing the admin’s latitude, but delaying effect until higher court reviews.
  
• Street Take: Manufacturers face uncertainty; equities largely assume the White House finds a workaround; the bond market now loves tariff revenue to pay down debt!
  
• Next Stop: Supreme Court could restore the authority, keeping trade policy a volatility lever for autos, electronics, and solar components.
  

Spotlight: A “Shale Moment” for US Critical Minerals?

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(Deep dive: Is this the shale moment for critical mineral mining in the US? — The Oregon Group)

Why It Matters

• Security: US fully import-dependent for 12/50 criticals; >50% reliant for 31 more—fragile for energy and defense.
  
• Demand: EVs, batteries, renewables, semis could double or triple demand this decade.
  
• China’s Edge: Refining/processing dominance raises strategic alarms.
  

What’s New

• Tech: DLE lithium recovery (>80%), solvent-free rare earth separation, plasma reduction for titanium/nickel, and tailings mining at scale.
  
• Policy: DPA (Defense Production Act) funding, faster permits (7 yrs → 2–3), strategic stockpiles, new Aug. 2025 list (adds copper, silicon, silver).
  
• AI/Smart Mining: Digital twins + machine learning accelerate exploration and cut downtime.
  
• Financing: OEM offtakes de-risk projects and unlock capital.
  
• Oklahoma Model: Lithium/REE (rare earth elements) refineries and battery recycling set for 2026; Public Private Partnerships speed workforce and tech transfer.
  

Risk tape: Technologies are nearing commercial but still face learning curves—echoes of shale’s early years.

Closing Reads

• The September curse meets a dovish Fed and ample cash.
  
• Gold/silver price action signals a regime shift; allocations are responding.
  
• Bitcoin’s calm is deceptive—setup favors asymmetrical upside.
  
• DOE’s roadmap fuels debate while channeling capital.
  
• Tariff authority heads to SCOTUS; watch import-heavy sectors.
  
• Critical minerals show shale-like ambition; Oklahoma is the lab.
  
  

In The Markets

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Non-farm payrolls: Markets were expecting a soft print—consensus at +75–80k payrolls, unemployment at 4.2%. Instead, we got +22k, with June revised down to -13k and July nudged higher by +6k.  

Translation: weak, but not a collapse. Weak enough to lock in a September cut (essentially 100% odds), yet not so ugly that investors panic.  

In Fed-speak, this is the sweet spot for “bad news = good news”—soft labor gives Powell the cover to ease, and risk assets the green light to run higher. 

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Nvidia vs. The Fed: Who’s Boss Now?

Headline Revenue: Q2 revenue surged to $46.7B, up 56% YoY, with EPS at $1.05—both comfortably above consensus.

Growth Drivers: Relentless demand for Blackwell AI chips and data center hardware powered results. Management doubled down with a $60B buyback and $10B in shareholder returns.

Data Center Miss: The core segment—data centers—printed $41.1B, narrowly missing the street’s $41.29B estimate.

Caveats: Absent H20 chip sales to China, swelling inventories, and softer margins kept the afterglow in check. Red tape from a revenue-share deal with Washington is also slowing rollouts.

Stock Reaction: Shares slipped ~3% after hours—evidence that even massive beats can disappoint when expectations are stratospheric.

Macro Market Impact: Despite the fireworks, S&P futures, gold, Bitcoin, the dollar, credit spreads, and Treasuries barely budged. Nvidia may dominate productivity’s future, but Powell still won this round of market reaction.

The old mantra “Don’t fight the Fed” is meeting a new rival: “Don’t bet against the chipmakers.” But this week, Powell had the louder signal.

Powell’s Pivot: Jobs Over Inflation

At Jackson Hole, Powell reframed the Fed’s priorities. 

Tariff-driven inflation? Real, but temporary. 

 Jobs? The real worry.

• Immigration policy is denting payrolls.
  
• May and June’s downward revisions spooked the Fed.
  
• With policy already “restrictive,” Powell believes he can ease without re-igniting inflation.

Markets cheered. Powell looked less like an inflation hawk, more like a pragmatist navigating weak labor, fiscal debt math, and geopolitical shocks. Quietly, Treasury’s ballooning interest costs make lower rates more than just monetary policy—they’re fiscal necessity.

Lisa Cook Fired: Bad Optics, Worse Judgment

• Cook’s dismissal looked messy but was inevitable. Two back-to-back residential mortgages flagged red for regulators. No charges yet, but DOJ scrutiny made her role untenable.
• In any compliance-driven industry, this would have triggered a suspension. Credentials can’t offset poor optics. At the Fed, governance still matters.
• Cook’s suing Trump (who isn’t?), and says she won’t be ‘bullied’. Let’s see the substance of her defense.
• If Trump’s firing holds, his appointees will have four of seven voting governors.

Government, Inc.

Anthony Pompliano argues Washington is being run like a business. He’s not wrong:

• The alleged wisdom of open markets, free trade, and borderless economics is like a failed strategy being rebooted.
  
• Taxpayers as ATM—shareholders/voters revolted last November.
  
• Politicians are outsourcing accountability while deficits compound from pet projects and boundless entitlements offered to buy votes.

The “government isn’t a business” defense is how trillion-dollar deficits metastasized. The global reset won’t wait for Washington’s denial.

Energy, Russia, and the Bond Market

Russia continues to gain ground in Ukraine as Western support wanes. Every barrel of offline Russian crude tightens U.S. Treasury math. Oil shocks push inflation expectations higher and Treasury funding costs wider.

Sanctions don’t solve it. Wall Street still needs supply continuity. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent knows it—even if he can’t say it.

China’s Rare Earth Chokehold

U.S. defense manufacturing runs on Chinese rare earths. Decoupling talk is political theater. Supply chains remain bottlenecked. Tariffs may weigh on China’s growth, but Washington still imports dependency along with the minerals.

Kenya’s RMB Debt Shift: Currency Wars in Motion

Kenya’s choice to re-denominate debt into yuan highlights Beijing’s rise as global lender. The RMB is becoming the currency of sovereign survival, while the dollar remains the currency of global allocation.

The USD still dominates, but its monopoly is eroding at the margins. Future crises may not follow the old dollar wrecking-ball script.

Big Picture: A Fractured Order

• U.S. equities remain the anchor but diversification flows are rising.
  
• Old monopolies—monetary (Fed), military (U.S.), energy (West)—are fracturing.
  
• Tech giants like Nvidia, supply shocks, and alternative funding regimes are redrawing the map.
  
• Interdependence, not dominance, is the new macro law.
  
  

The superpower era is giving way to fragmentation. Investors who don’t adapt will miss the new playbook.

Macro Odd Lot: Swift & Kelce’s Pre-nup M&A

Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s engagement isn’t just a love story—it’s a liquidity event. $1.7B combined net worth, lawyers on speed dial, and GDP implications fit for a Treasury briefing.

Call it: Love Story, Baby, Just Sign Here.

In The Markets

Equities: Still dominant, though allocations to Europe/Asia accelerating.
Energy: Oil risk premium remains embedded in Treasury math.
FX: RMB rising as funding currency, dollar softening at the edges.
Tech: Nvidia results ≠ market mover; Powell still has the mic.

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Kyiv’s $150B Framework — Europe Pays, America Sells

Ukraine is floating a $150B package: $90–100B in U.S. weapons financed largely by European partners, plus $50B in joint drone production with American firms. The aim: secure U.S. guarantees, tie Europe to long-term financing, and lock in U.S. industrial participation post-accord.
Investor read-through: Whether war drags on or peace takes hold, U.S. defense revenues are baked in.

Chips as Cash Register and Cudgel

Washington is weighing converting CHIPS Act (Biden-era legislation) subsidies into ~10% non-voting equity in Intel, while demanding a 15% skim on Nvidia’s China H20 revenues (with AMD reportedly in the mix). Subsidies become stakes; export licenses become toll booths.
Market angle: Intel cuts funding costs, its CEO gets out of Trump PR-jail, but the company inherits policy overhang. Nvidia preserves access to China at thinner margins, creating a precedent for license-conditioned economics.

Resetting Bargaining Power

Intel’s CEO drew rare public rebuke before reports of a U.S. stake surfaced. The sequence signals Washington’s tactic: first apply pressure, then attach capital and concessions. A similar logic shapes Ukraine—float peace terms, attach U.S. guarantees to industrial deals, shift financing burdens to Europe. After a disastrous first meeting at the White House, Zelensky learned the ropes: wear a suit (Trump asked nicely), and offer candy to the President.

Risk Map — Policy Volatility Premium

• Ukraine: Proposals touching Crimea or NATO renunciation collide with Kyiv’s constitution, sustaining demand for drones and air defense near term. Russia continues to pound Ukraine; Trump shakes his head, and Europe borrows at scale to fully re-arm.
  
• Policy volatility: Equity stakes, skims, and tariff threats can shift overnight. Watch CHIPS disbursement calendars and export-license reviews. This flatters China’s Made in China 2025 plan.
  
• Industrial crowding: Winners get capital and contracts; laggards face higher costs of capital and tighter scrutiny.
  

From Solyndra to Skims — The Policy Evolution

• Then (2011): Solyndra’s $535M DOE loan guarantee left taxpayers exposed to full downside with no upside levers. Bankruptcy cemented its infamy.
  
• Now (2025): Equity stakes, royalties, and conditional licenses tie support to performance. Taxpayers gain contingent upside, policymakers retain control.
  

Continuity: Public capital still steers industry.
Discontinuity: The model shifted from “guarantee the bet” to “own the option and meter the gate.”

Powell’s Jackson Hole Balancing Act

Navigating market sentiment, skewed toward a September rate cut, and his own focus on a legacy of not being Arthur Burns, Powell made the tightrope look like a suspension bridge and the markets cheered him all the way across.

Key Takeaways:

• He rationalized the tension in the data—CPI, PPI, and employment—with a classic bit of central banker-speak: “Distinguishing cyclical from trend is difficult.” Translation: reasonable folks can differ; the data can be confusing.
• He acknowledged the one-time price shock of tariffs. Yes, there’s uncertainty. Yes, impact is accumulating unevenly. But it’s “manageable,” and unless the labor market tightens, a wage-price spiral seems unlikely.
• GDP is slowing. Powell admits policy may be too restrictive.
  
• The neutral Fed Funds rate may be higher than we thought, but the time may be right to finally adjust policy.
  

But before we sign off on the full “Chairman Redemption” narrative, let’s check the history:

1. Tightened too much in Q4 2018—then promptly U-turned.
   
2. Eased too slowly in Q1 2020—late to the punch, pandemic edition.
   
3. Tightened too late in 2021-2022—no one forgets “transitory.”
   
4. Failed to adequately supervise in the lead-up to the regional banking crisis of 2023—“nobody saw it coming,” except, of course, the chart watchers.
   

Powell can’t pull legacy from the jaws of mediocrity just by #resisting Trump. But, he has baked in a cut for September.

How did the markets take it? Powell just lit a rocket:

• Stocks: bid
  
• Bonds: bid
  
• Precious metals: bid
  
• Bitcoin: bid
  
• USD: sell
  

Whatever the Fed’s gameplan, risk assets loved the vibe—at least for today. See asset table below for the play-by-play.

In The Markets — AI Rally Meets Reality

The AI trade hit turbulence. Earnings reality is replacing hype as capital rotates into balance-sheet strength and defensives. Regulators are tightening rhetoric on AI ethics. This week feels less like panic, more like a collective exhale — conviction over FOMO. And, to make a happy Friday, Powell took his foot off the brake—watch the markets burn some rubber.

Closing Thoughts

The only thing running harder than the market since April might be the collective imagination of AI boosters—until Sam Altman’s “pause” and Meta’s hiring freeze called time, and the markets paused. 

Enter Powell, just in time to stop the slide. But in Jackson Hole or on Wall Street, remember: the 12 Fed governors are just hikers, navigating terrain the Teton-sized terrain of broader financial markets. They should hand the short-term rate decisions to the markets, but, for now, Powell has avoided a fifth policy mistake and kept the shadow of Arthur Burns at bay. 

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