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The U.S. is trying to do three hard things at once: rewire its industrial base, rewrite trade rules, and rethink money. This week’s cross‑currents—rare earth gambits, Bitcoin valuation models, crypto legislation, tariff math, and re-weaponized arms exports—are the real drivers of portfolios, not the noise.
This Week at a Glance
Pentagon takes stake in MP Materials to jump‑start U.S. rare earth magnets.
Interior moves to loosen mining rules for lithium, cobalt, nickel.
Capriole’s “Bitcoin Energy Value” model gains institutional traction.
Crypto Week on Capitol Hill pushes stablecoin and jurisdiction bills forward.
Tariff revenue surges—the TACO trade is noisy, but the Treasury cash is real.
Arms‑via‑allies model channels U.S. kit to Ukraine while Europe foots more of the bill.
MP Materials & the Pentagon’s Magnet Play
Washington is finally trying industrial policy on purpose. The U.S. is backing MP Materials to rebuild a domestic rare earth magnet supply chain—the crucial step between mined ore and finished neodymium‑praseodymium (NdPr) magnets that power EV drivetrains, wind turbines, precision munitions, and guidance systems.
Deal Structure (proposed):
Pentagon equity stake: ~15%.
$150M low‑cost loan under Defense Production Act authority.
10‑year offtake contract with a price floor tied to NdPr benchmarks.
Capacity goal: MP’s planned “10X Facility” targets 10,000 metric tons of finished magnets/yr by 2028—enough to move the U.S. from raw‑material exporter to full‑spectrum producer.
Why Markets Care: This is economic statecraft, not subsidy trivia. A credible U.S. magnet supply reduces Chinese leverage across autos, wind, and defense—and could reprime valuations for miners, specialty processors, and defense primes with magnet exposure. China has played this long game for decades; the U.S. is late, but not out.
Doug Burgum’s Mining Offensive: Permitting as Policy
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum is pushing an aggressive 20–30% cut in federal permitting timelines for strategic mineral projects on public lands.
Focus metals: lithium, nickel, cobalt, rare earths—the feedstock for EV batteries, grid storage, munitions guidance, and permanent magnets.
Framing: National security, not just climate. Burgum warns U.S. manufacturing plans are hostage to Chinese mineral supply chains.
Pushback: Environmental coalitions already lining up lawsuits; Western water use and tribal consultation are friction points.
Market Angle: Faster permits + DPA funding + offtake guarantees = a path for private capital to re‑rate U.S. critical‑mineral juniors now priced as option value only.
Capriole Investments has gained Wall Street mindshare with its Bitcoin Energy Value (BEV) model—a fundamentals‑style anchor derived from energy input costs to secure the network relative to new BTC issuance.
Current Model Read: ~$130K “fair value” equivalent. Spot trades below; long‑horizon funds are watching the gap.
Why It Matters:
Post‑halving issuance declines; energy cost per new BTC rises.
Mining cost + issuance supply = quasi “marginal cost” floor for strategic allocators.
When spot trades deep below BEV, long‑only macro funds add; above, they trim.
Investor Use Case: Less day‑trading signal, more valuation gravity—especially for institutions treating BTC as a commodity‑monetary hybrid.
Crypto Week on Capitol Hill: From Fringe to File Number
Congressional hearing rooms actually said the quiet part out loud: digital assets need rules.
In play:
GENIUS Act (stablecoins): Reserve, reporting, and charter framework advanced in committee.
Clarity Act: Attempts to fence the SEC’s “everything is a security” stance and carve out digital commodity treatment.
Anti‑CBDC Surveillance State Act: Symbolic, but signals resistance to a retail FedCoin.
Several measures stalled, but the existence of coordinated hearings marks a regime shift: crypto policy is moving from enforcement to statute. Sentiment uplift helped push Bitcoin higher and broadened bid across large‑cap tokens.
TACO Trump: Noise vs. The Treasury’s Tariff Cash
Wall Street’s acronym TACO—“Trump Always Chickens Out”—still explains the trade: tariff threat, market wobble, deadline slide, risk‑on bounce. But the money is no joke.
Tariff Revenue Reality
$113B collected YTD (2025) vs $61B YTD (2024).
June 2025: $26.6B vs $6.3B in June 2024.
New 25‑40% lines plus the 50% copper tariff are swelling customs receipts.
Sector Effects:
U.S. miners and processors catch a pricing tailwind.
Import‑reliant manufacturers (electronics, autos, appliances) see margin pressure.
Treasury gains a quasi‑automatic stabilizer—tariff revenue now material to fiscal math.
Trading Note: Markets fade the rhetoric—but earnings season will surface the cost pass‑through.
Category noise flagged in furnishings, toys, household appliances—channels where tariff passthrough tends to show first.
Policy takeaway: Mixed data gives Powell room to wait. Tariff uncertainty + imperfect transmission lets the Fed stay higher‑for‑longer without new hikes.
Ukraine Arms Deal: U.S. Kit, Europe’s Checkbook
Washington has shifted to a “sell‑and-transfer” model: The U.S. sells advanced weapons—Patriot batteries, artillery, interceptors—to NATO partners, who in turn re‑route them to Ukraine.
Why it works:
Sustains U.S. defense production lines.
Moves cost burden toward European budgets.
Keeps U.S. front‑line exposure indirect while replenishing allied inventories.
Broader Implication: A template for future proxy support structures—in Asia as much as Eastern Europe.
Macro Lens: Where All This Lands
Industrial policy is finally married to national security. Rare earth magnets, mine permits, and energy security are now investable policy themes.
Monetary & digital convergence: Bitcoin’s energy‑anchored valuation model is gaining institutional use just as Congress edges toward stablecoin law.
Tariffs that “never happen” are funding the government. Ignore the tweet storms; follow the customs ledger.
Portfolio Rule: Track the cash flows. Count the magnets. Price the copper. Watch the policy beta in your supply chains.
Neil Winward is the founding partner of Dakota Ridge Captial, helping investors, developers, banks, non-profits, and family offices unlock massive tax savings - on average of 7%- 10% - via clean energy investments by fully leveraging U.S. government incentives such the Inflation Reduction Act.
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Explore this week’s market shifts, from Goldilocks conditions to U.S. government-led industrial investments, precious metals rallies, and the AI circular economy. Learn when to hold, fold, and navigate policy-driven opportunities.
Macro Pulse: Top 3 Market Shifts This Week
Goldilocks Grinds On — Until the Chairs Move
Goldilocks is still loving the music—but, as every seasoned player knows, when the chairs start moving, the music ends fast. Translation: It’s a bullish bonanza, but risks are lurking and seats are limited. Watch who’s still standing when the lights flicker.
Precious Metals & Bitcoin — All That Glitters
Gold and silver surged this week alongside Bitcoin. The inflation-hedge narrative is back—layered this time with shutdown drama and geopolitical paranoia. Bitcoin isn’t just speculation anymore; it’s “digital gold” for a market that doesn’t trust that politicians (or hackers) can’t flip the switch.
Reason for the rally: The U.S. government’s latest shutdown spectacle—a masterclass in dysfunction.
“Nobody really thinks Washington will fix itself, but if we pretend long enough, at least gold goes up.”
America’s ‘V.C.’ Portfolio — Four to Watch
Not your grandfather’s industrial policy. The U.S. now holds stakes in Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals—a move straight from Xi’s playbook. These firms outperform because Uncle Sam isn’t just printing dollars anymore; he’s printing term sheets and permits.
Call it statecraft, call it crowdsourced national security—just don’t ignore it.
Quick Hits
Labor Market: Job growth is cooling just enough for Powell to sound dovish—still “just right.”
S&P 500: Breadth improving—mid-caps finally joining the party.
Energy Infrastructure: $1T grid upgrade wave, $50B natural gas expansion = transition pragmatism.
AI Capex: OpenAI alone projects $1T in long-term commitments.
Investor Dilemma: Same as always—when to sell, when to keep dancing. Nobody rings the bell at the top.
This week’s deep dive: How America became its own venture capitalist, why hyperscalers are building a circular AI economy, and whether Goldilocks is glancing at the exit or just finding another chair.
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Gold isn’t just glimmering—it’s signaling a deeper structural shift in global finance. Silver, copper, and platinum are no longer sidekicks. They’re now central to both industrial growth and investor portfolios.
This week’s MacroMashup debrief explores why metals are back in focus—and why this cycle looks different from those before.
Key Takeaways
Central banks are buying gold at record levels while trimming Treasuries.
Fiat debasement is now a feature, not a bug.
Industrial demand for silver, copper, and platinum is accelerating due to grid expansion, EVs, and defense.
Supply bottlenecks (from missiles to mining) make metals a geopolitical flashpoint.
Historical Context
Gold has experienced three major bull runs—in the 1970s, the 2000s, and now. A crisis, policy shift, or geopolitical event sparked each. Today’s rally is different: it’s being driven by central banks and global power realignment.
👉 Full breakdown of these cycles, what central banks are really signaling, and how portfolios should adapt is available in the premium edition.
Metals are no longer “alternative” assets. They’re fast becoming core reserves and strategic allocations.
➡️ To access the full deep dive—including charts, history, and investor positioning—subscribe to MacroMashup Premium for only 9$/mo.
Another 25bps Fed charade, gold + Bitcoin crush the S&P, AI guts Gen Z’s job market, and foreign money returns with a hedge.
The Fed’s Theater, Gold’s Triumph, and Gen Z’s Meltdown
The Great 25 Basis Points Charade
Why It’s Time to End the Fed’s Kabuki
Another month, another Fed press conference. Jerome Powell delivered the most telegraphed 25bps cut of the decade, and markets barely yawned (although, after they slept on it, they liked it better).
S&P 500? Opened flat, closed flat. In between: wild swings as Powell tried to say nothing while pretending to say something.
Theatrics aside, the real question is: what’s the point of this performance?
The Fed has become a hostage to market expectations. Every move is pre-priced. Every word is rehearsed. And the “independence” fiction is stretched thin.
Takeaway: Rate-setting has already been ceded to markets. The Fed should admit it—and stick to plumbing fixes like repo, lending, and shadow-bank supervision. Until then, we’re watching monetary improv, not policy.
Gold, Silver, and the End of Dollar Exceptionalism
While Powell’s kabuki played out, gold and silver quietly tripled the S&P 500’s YTD returns.
Gold/S&P ratio just broke a multi-year base—the same setup that preceded monster runs in the 1970s and 2000s.
For the first time ever, the U.S. is a net importer of physical gold.
BRICS nations are doubling down on reserves. Trump’s tariff threats only deepen their resolve to build gold-backed trade corridors.
Signals missed by the mainstream:
Gold and Bitcoin are both outpacing equities.
Scarcity—metallic and digital—is the new hedge as fiat dilution accelerates.
Dollar exceptionalism is ending, quietly, while news anchors chatter about meme stocks.
AI Is Annihilating Gen Z’s Career Hopes
The business cycle has snapped. Productivity is up and boosting tech earnings. Gen Z jobs are vanishing.
Tens of thousands of entry-level knowledge roles are gone in tech and services.
Average Gen Z FICO scores fell 3 points—the steepest drop since 2008.
14% saw a 50-point nosedive, locking them out of mortgages and credit.
The “J-curve” optimists say recovery will come. The catch? No one knows where. AI has so far freed people from paychecks, rather than giving them a new pathway to shine.
Investor lens: If the 20-somethings can’t climb the ladder, consumer demand—especially housing—gets kneecapped. The only asymmetric bet Gen Z has is crypto.
Foreign Money Returns But With a Hedge
“Liberation Day” saw foreigners dump U.S. assets. Now they’re back—but hedged.
Currency-hedged funds dominate inflows.
Foreign ownership of Treasuries is at a record, but the dollar is still down 11% YTD.
International investors are treating the U.S. like any other ex-growth developed market: buy equities, short the dollar.
Decoupling confirmed: The S&P can rise while the dollar falls. This is the new playbook.
America Bends the Knee to China
Official rhetoric says “pushing back on China.” Reality says economic feudalism.
Beijing is amassing gold and silver, with 30% of trade now settling in yuan, a 10-year high.
Belt & Road vaults let borrowers repo gold locally, bypassing Treasuries.
This is the architecture of a new monetary regime. Corridor by corridor, gold is being re-monetized. The U.S. political class? Still playing catch-up. But at least they’re in the race.
Meanwhile in Windsor: Pageantry and Protest
As the U.S. kneels economically, Britain rolled out the literal red carpet.
Trump feted at Windsor Castle in full royal regalia: horses, chariots, fanfare.
Outside: activist artists projection-mapped Trump and Epstein across the castle walls during dinner. Four arrests, little coverage.
Visual metaphor of the week: Gilded decline inside, scandal suppressed outside.
In The Markets
Closing Note: Macro’s Smoke and Mirrors
The week ends in monetary fog.
Gold and Bitcoin are flashing green.
Gen Z’s labor market is a demolition zone.
Dollar weakness no longer blocks equity strength.
The inflation that matters isn’t CPI or PPI. It’s the fiscal and monetary inflation of financial assets. Stay uninvested, and you’ll be left behind.
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