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NVIDIA earnings took center stage. Powell stayed steady. Trump swung a hammer at clean energy. And bond investors in the U.S. and Japan are getting nervous for very different reasons.
Welcome back to MacroMashup—the sharpest 7-minute read in macro. No fluff. Just signal.
NVIDIA: The New Fed Day for Tech?
Forget Powell, Wall Street’s real Fed Day this week was NVIDIA’s earnings call.
Revenue: $44.06B, up 69% YoY
Gross profit: $26.7B (60.5% margin)
Net income: $18.8B (including a $4.5B charge on Trump-era export restrictions)
Data center growth: +73%
Markets treated NVIDIA as a proxy for:
AI investment cycles
Big Tech capex
Global sentiment on semiconductors, especially China’s $50B AI market
Despite risks, implied volatility was down (-7.4%), well below historical norms (-11.4%).
CEO Jensen Huang = dynamic signal.
Trump = chaotic noise.
Powell = steady… but surprisingly volatile.
(86% of S&P rallies follow rate cuts. Powell drives more volatility than his predecessors.)
Not Everyone’s Impressed by Powell
Former Dallas Fed insider Danielle DiMartino Booth argues the Fed is already behind the curve:
Recession began in Q1 2024 (according to her metrics)
Bankruptcies now match 2008 levels
Household delinquencies are spiking
Credit conditions are tightening
Small business sentiment collapsing
Her view:
Rates must drop to 2%—now
Fed should shift from lagging data to real-time metrics
Delays risk systemic damage
One take? Yes. A smart one? Absolutely.
Are Tariffs Really Inflationary? Not Always.
The common narrative says yes. The data says… maybe not.
Substitution & demand destruction keep prices in check
Trump-era tariffs = short-term supply shock, not long-term inflation
Goldman Sachs projects PCE inflation peaking at 3.5% in 2025, easing to 2.6% in 2026
But margins get squeezed. Labor takes the hit.
Breaking: The U.S. Court of International Trade just ruled that Trump overstepped his authority under the 1977 emergency law. Some tariffs will be unwound within 10 days.
Breaking (Part 2): A Federal Appeals Court allows tariffs to stay in effect…for now. Calling the Supremes.
Lousy Bond Auctions
Japan & U.S. Bond Investors are in a bad mood:
The 20-year and 40-year JGB (Japanese Government Bonds) auctions (May 2025) saw the lowest demand since July 2024, amid concerns over fiscal sustainability.
Yields surged: 20-year 2.56%; 30-year JGB yields hit 3.14%, while 40-year yields spiked to 3.6%**, all-time highs.
The U.S. is worse: 10-year yields are above 4.5%, and long-term yields (20- and 30-year) jump above 5%.
Same result, different reasons:
Net International Investment Position (NIIP): Structural Divergence
Japan = world’s largest creditor—owns $3.48 trillion more in foreign assets than foreign owns Japanese assets.
U.S. = world’s largest debtor—foreigners own $26 trillion more U.S. assets than the U.S. owns foreign assets.
It’s all about persistent trade surpluses for Japan and opposite for the U.S.
Japan’s Debt/GDP ratio is way higher than the U.S., but adjusting for the NIIP…
Japan’s problem?
Aging population.
Policy uncertainty.
U.S. problem?
Political gridlock.
Lack of political will to fix the deficit.
Running out of investors to buy its debt.
Bigger problem?
Declining confidence in USD and fiat systems.
China and BRICS are building BRICS Pay, which threatens the USD and SWIFT—it settles in 7 seconds.
Clean Energy Just Got Hit With a Sledgehammer
The House passed the One Big, Beautiful Bill—and it slashed many of the Inflation Reduction Act’s signature green incentives:
Clean Energy Production/Investment Credits:
Immediate termination, unless construction starts within 60 days of enactment and operation by 12/31/28.
Residential/Commercial Energy Credits
Expire for property placed in service after 12/31/25—ends third-party leasing.
EV Credits and Chargers
Ends for most EVs and chargers after 12/31/25—limited exception for some EVs until 12/31/26.
Advanced Manufacturing Credit (45X)
Phaseout by 2032.
Transferability ends after 2027.
Clean Fuel Credit (45Z)
Extended to 2031.
Stricter sourcing and emissions rules.
Transferability ends after 2027.
Nuclear Incentives (45U)
Maintained/enhanced.
No phaseout until 2031.
New "Foreign Entity of Concern" (FEOC) restrictions
Limit foreign ownership and control in U.S. clean energy projects, primarily targeting Chinese involvement.
Effective 1/1/26.
The bill now moves to the Senate, where substantial amendments are expected/hoped for—unless Trump can strongarm Senators too…
In the Markets: Who’s Right—Danielle or Darius?
Two respected voices. Two different reads on the economy.
Danielle DiMartino Booth
Sees hard data turning south: bankruptcies, job losses, loan delinquencies
Believes a recession already started
Advocates for urgent cuts
Darius Dale
Says soft data is noisy, but the hard data remains solid
Sees fiscal and monetary stimulus holding the floor
Follows a signal-based investment system, and puts money behind it
Lesson?
Without a system, you’re just reacting to headlines. And that’s a losing strategy.
If your only signal is your newsfeed or podcast queue, you’re trading blind.
Weekly charts + market data.
🎧 Want to hear both sides? We’ve linked Danielle’s and Darius’s latest interviews here:
How do you decide who’s right?
Darius Dale manages money, his own included, based on the signals his system provides. Here is his take.
Market charts this week are largely “unch”: up, down, leadership changes, capital rotation etc.
This one, though, is worth a look. The blue line—massively negative at $26 trillion—is the net international investment position of the U.S. compared to the rest of the world.
America is truly exceptional…
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Neil Winward is the founding partner of Dakota Ridge Captial, helping investors, developers, banks, non-profits, and family offices unlock massive tax savings - on average of 7%- 10% - via clean energy investments by fully leveraging U.S. government incentives such the Inflation Reduction Act.
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Explore this week’s market shifts, from Goldilocks conditions to U.S. government-led industrial investments, precious metals rallies, and the AI circular economy. Learn when to hold, fold, and navigate policy-driven opportunities.
Macro Pulse: Top 3 Market Shifts This Week
Goldilocks Grinds On — Until the Chairs Move
Goldilocks is still loving the music—but, as every seasoned player knows, when the chairs start moving, the music ends fast. Translation: It’s a bullish bonanza, but risks are lurking and seats are limited. Watch who’s still standing when the lights flicker.
Precious Metals & Bitcoin — All That Glitters
Gold and silver surged this week alongside Bitcoin. The inflation-hedge narrative is back—layered this time with shutdown drama and geopolitical paranoia. Bitcoin isn’t just speculation anymore; it’s “digital gold” for a market that doesn’t trust that politicians (or hackers) can’t flip the switch.
Reason for the rally: The U.S. government’s latest shutdown spectacle—a masterclass in dysfunction.
“Nobody really thinks Washington will fix itself, but if we pretend long enough, at least gold goes up.”
America’s ‘V.C.’ Portfolio — Four to Watch
Not your grandfather’s industrial policy. The U.S. now holds stakes in Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals—a move straight from Xi’s playbook. These firms outperform because Uncle Sam isn’t just printing dollars anymore; he’s printing term sheets and permits.
Call it statecraft, call it crowdsourced national security—just don’t ignore it.
Quick Hits
Labor Market: Job growth is cooling just enough for Powell to sound dovish—still “just right.”
S&P 500: Breadth improving—mid-caps finally joining the party.
Energy Infrastructure: $1T grid upgrade wave, $50B natural gas expansion = transition pragmatism.
AI Capex: OpenAI alone projects $1T in long-term commitments.
Investor Dilemma: Same as always—when to sell, when to keep dancing. Nobody rings the bell at the top.
This week’s deep dive: How America became its own venture capitalist, why hyperscalers are building a circular AI economy, and whether Goldilocks is glancing at the exit or just finding another chair.
➡️ To keep reading, please subscribe for only $9 monthly.
Gold isn’t just glimmering—it’s signaling a deeper structural shift in global finance. Silver, copper, and platinum are no longer sidekicks. They’re now central to both industrial growth and investor portfolios.
This week’s MacroMashup debrief explores why metals are back in focus—and why this cycle looks different from those before.
Key Takeaways
Central banks are buying gold at record levels while trimming Treasuries.
Fiat debasement is now a feature, not a bug.
Industrial demand for silver, copper, and platinum is accelerating due to grid expansion, EVs, and defense.
Supply bottlenecks (from missiles to mining) make metals a geopolitical flashpoint.
Historical Context
Gold has experienced three major bull runs—in the 1970s, the 2000s, and now. A crisis, policy shift, or geopolitical event sparked each. Today’s rally is different: it’s being driven by central banks and global power realignment.
👉 Full breakdown of these cycles, what central banks are really signaling, and how portfolios should adapt is available in the premium edition.
Metals are no longer “alternative” assets. They’re fast becoming core reserves and strategic allocations.
➡️ To access the full deep dive—including charts, history, and investor positioning—subscribe to MacroMashup Premium for only 9$/mo.
Another 25bps Fed charade, gold + Bitcoin crush the S&P, AI guts Gen Z’s job market, and foreign money returns with a hedge.
The Fed’s Theater, Gold’s Triumph, and Gen Z’s Meltdown
The Great 25 Basis Points Charade
Why It’s Time to End the Fed’s Kabuki
Another month, another Fed press conference. Jerome Powell delivered the most telegraphed 25bps cut of the decade, and markets barely yawned (although, after they slept on it, they liked it better).
S&P 500? Opened flat, closed flat. In between: wild swings as Powell tried to say nothing while pretending to say something.
Theatrics aside, the real question is: what’s the point of this performance?
The Fed has become a hostage to market expectations. Every move is pre-priced. Every word is rehearsed. And the “independence” fiction is stretched thin.
Takeaway: Rate-setting has already been ceded to markets. The Fed should admit it—and stick to plumbing fixes like repo, lending, and shadow-bank supervision. Until then, we’re watching monetary improv, not policy.
Gold, Silver, and the End of Dollar Exceptionalism
While Powell’s kabuki played out, gold and silver quietly tripled the S&P 500’s YTD returns.
Gold/S&P ratio just broke a multi-year base—the same setup that preceded monster runs in the 1970s and 2000s.
For the first time ever, the U.S. is a net importer of physical gold.
BRICS nations are doubling down on reserves. Trump’s tariff threats only deepen their resolve to build gold-backed trade corridors.
Signals missed by the mainstream:
Gold and Bitcoin are both outpacing equities.
Scarcity—metallic and digital—is the new hedge as fiat dilution accelerates.
Dollar exceptionalism is ending, quietly, while news anchors chatter about meme stocks.
AI Is Annihilating Gen Z’s Career Hopes
The business cycle has snapped. Productivity is up and boosting tech earnings. Gen Z jobs are vanishing.
Tens of thousands of entry-level knowledge roles are gone in tech and services.
Average Gen Z FICO scores fell 3 points—the steepest drop since 2008.
14% saw a 50-point nosedive, locking them out of mortgages and credit.
The “J-curve” optimists say recovery will come. The catch? No one knows where. AI has so far freed people from paychecks, rather than giving them a new pathway to shine.
Investor lens: If the 20-somethings can’t climb the ladder, consumer demand—especially housing—gets kneecapped. The only asymmetric bet Gen Z has is crypto.
Foreign Money Returns But With a Hedge
“Liberation Day” saw foreigners dump U.S. assets. Now they’re back—but hedged.
Currency-hedged funds dominate inflows.
Foreign ownership of Treasuries is at a record, but the dollar is still down 11% YTD.
International investors are treating the U.S. like any other ex-growth developed market: buy equities, short the dollar.
Decoupling confirmed: The S&P can rise while the dollar falls. This is the new playbook.
America Bends the Knee to China
Official rhetoric says “pushing back on China.” Reality says economic feudalism.
Beijing is amassing gold and silver, with 30% of trade now settling in yuan, a 10-year high.
Belt & Road vaults let borrowers repo gold locally, bypassing Treasuries.
This is the architecture of a new monetary regime. Corridor by corridor, gold is being re-monetized. The U.S. political class? Still playing catch-up. But at least they’re in the race.
Meanwhile in Windsor: Pageantry and Protest
As the U.S. kneels economically, Britain rolled out the literal red carpet.
Trump feted at Windsor Castle in full royal regalia: horses, chariots, fanfare.
Outside: activist artists projection-mapped Trump and Epstein across the castle walls during dinner. Four arrests, little coverage.
Visual metaphor of the week: Gilded decline inside, scandal suppressed outside.
In The Markets
Closing Note: Macro’s Smoke and Mirrors
The week ends in monetary fog.
Gold and Bitcoin are flashing green.
Gen Z’s labor market is a demolition zone.
Dollar weakness no longer blocks equity strength.
The inflation that matters isn’t CPI or PPI. It’s the fiscal and monetary inflation of financial assets. Stay uninvested, and you’ll be left behind.
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