Markets, Tariffs & Deals: Between Truce & Turmoil - What's Next?

Washington’s playing Let’s Make a Deal.

Markets are trying to guess the ending.

China just walked off with a better hand.

Welcome back to MacroMashup, where we decode markets, policy, and geopolitics in under 7 minutes—no fluff, just signals.

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Tariffs Down, Optimism Up… Maybe

Both the U.S. and China blinked. And that’s good for now.

• U.S. tariffs cut from 145% → 30%
• China’s retaliation drops from 125% → 10%

The economic impact? Not bad:

• China gets a GDP boost:
  • JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley revise 2025 forecasts up to 4.6–4.8%.
• U.S. outlook improves too:
  • Goldman lifts Q4 2025 GDP forecast to 1.0% (from 0.5%).
  • Yardeni Research moves 2025 GDP range to 1.5–2.5%, up from 0.5–1.5%.

But don’t uncork the champagne yet.

• These tariff cuts expire in 90 days unless a deal is finalized.
• Ports are still congested as the final tariff-free shipments arrive.
• Retailers have about 6–8 weeks of inventory before supply gaps hit.

Think of it like a traffic jam starting to clear. You might still make it home for dinner, but keep your hazards on.

Trump’s Middle East Power Plays: Big Money, Big Planes, Big Questions

Check the Middle East file if you thought the trade deals were bold.

• Saudi Arabia:
  • Committed to investing $600B–$1T in the U.S.
  • Targets include energy, defense, mining, tech, infrastructure, and critical minerals
• Qatar:
  • Just placed Boeing’s largest-ever aircraft order (160–210 planes)
  • Offered to gift Trump a new “Air Force One” (sort of):
    • It lacks full security and countermeasures
    • Won’t be used after Trump
    • Likely to end up in a presidential library, not the skies
  ‍

         Translation: huge optics, decent economics, mixed practicality.

Markets: Confused but Stabilizing

Volatility is fading, but conviction is still missing.

• VIX has fallen below 20 for the first time since March (down from a peak of 60)
• S&P 500: after a rollercoaster YTD, now basically flat
• USD is rallying short-term…
  • But still down YTD vs GBP, JPY, and EUR
• Gold & Silver are cooling—investors are back to chasing risk
• Bonds remain unimpressed:
  • Yields are sticky
  • Inflation isn’t behaving
  • The Fed isn’t moving

Markets want resolution, not rhetoric. They’re getting… headlines.

Investor Mindset Check: Systems Beat Stories

Narratives change. Your system shouldn’t.

To keep your sanity:

• Know your market regime: risk on/off, inflation, deflation, growth.
• Separate news flow from market signals.
• Use tools that match your time, risk tolerance, and brain bandwidth.

Investment Strategy Landscape: Who Uses What (by # of investors)?

• Robo-Advisors (Wealthfront, Betterment, Empower): 8–12M.
• DIY Subscriptions (Seeking Alpha, Motley Fool): 15–25M.
• 1% Wrap Fee Advisors: 13–15M.
• Flat Fee/Retainer Advisors: ~1M.
• Macro Subscriptions (42 Macro, Kobeissi, Macro Ops): 50K–250K.

Key questions to ask yourself:

• Are you a trader or long-term investor?
• Do you want automation or human advice?
• What’s your budget? Your time horizon? Your stomach for risk?

What Keeps Me Sane:

The system I subscribe to tracks:

• Market regimes by signal (growth, inflation, liquidity, volatility)
• Macro factors like yields, commodities, credit spreads
• Asset allocation based on regime, with overlays for momentum, price action, and volatility

It’s not flashy. But it works.

The One Big, Beautiful Bill: Will It Pass by Memorial Day?

A new tax and stimulus package is being negotiated behind closed doors. Highlights:

• No tax on tips or OT pay (2025–2028, retroactive).
• Auto loan interest deduction for U.S.-made vehicles.
• $4,000 extra standard deduction for seniors (65+).
• Child tax credit raised to $2,500 through 2028.
• MAGA Investment Accounts: $5,000/year with $1,000 seed for kids.
• 100% depreciation for U.S. factory builds (2025–2029).
• Interest deduction expansion for small biz.
• R&D deduction reinstated through 2029.
• Top tax rate locked at 37%, avoiding reversion to 39.6%.
• Inflation Reduction Act scaled back, but not gutted.

They’re aiming for a Memorial Day vote. We’ll see if Congress can do something rare: move fast.

Market Data-Charts

Three-Ring Circus:

• Gold vs Bitcoin: Volatility patterns are shifting—BTC is less volatile right now

• Stocks vs Bonds: Low vol, but bonds aren’t joining the party3

• Stocks are clawing their way to all-time highs, but the 10-year is stubbornly close to 4.5%

• Currency Watch: Are policymakers quietly engineering a weaker USD?

Watch the markets for direction, not the news flow.

What’s Next, What To Follow

Sometimes, you have to ride the rollercoaster: $1 million BTC? Pomp stirs it up with BITMEX co-founder and former CEO, Arthur Hayes.

Apple is a Chinese company! FT journalist, Patrick McGee has written 400 pages about how Apple made China into a tech manufacturing behemoth—and now is trapped.

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