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Nvidia vs. The Fed: Who’s Boss Now?
Headline Revenue: Q2 revenue surged to $46.7B, up 56% YoY, with EPS at $1.05—both comfortably above consensus.
Growth Drivers: Relentless demand for Blackwell AI chips and data center hardware powered results. Management doubled down with a $60B buyback and $10B in shareholder returns.
Data Center Miss: The core segment—data centers—printed $41.1B, narrowly missing the street’s $41.29B estimate.
Caveats: Absent H20 chip sales to China, swelling inventories, and softer margins kept the afterglow in check. Red tape from a revenue-share deal with Washington is also slowing rollouts.
Stock Reaction: Shares slipped ~3% after hours—evidence that even massive beats can disappoint when expectations are stratospheric.
Macro Market Impact: Despite the fireworks, S&P futures, gold, Bitcoin, the dollar, credit spreads, and Treasuries barely budged. Nvidia may dominate productivity’s future, but Powell still won this round of market reaction.
The old mantra “Don’t fight the Fed” is meeting a new rival: “Don’t bet against the chipmakers.” But this week, Powell had the louder signal.
Powell’s Pivot: Jobs Over Inflation
At Jackson Hole, Powell reframed the Fed’s priorities.
Tariff-driven inflation? Real, but temporary.
Jobs? The real worry.
Immigration policy is denting payrolls.
May and June’s downward revisions spooked the Fed.
With policy already “restrictive,” Powell believes he can ease without re-igniting inflation.
Markets cheered. Powell looked less like an inflation hawk, more like a pragmatist navigating weak labor, fiscal debt math, and geopolitical shocks. Quietly, Treasury’s ballooning interest costs make lower rates more than just monetary policy—they’re fiscal necessity.
Lisa Cook Fired: Bad Optics, Worse Judgment
Cook’s dismissal looked messy but was inevitable. Two back-to-back residential mortgages flagged red for regulators. No charges yet, but DOJ scrutiny made her role untenable.
In any compliance-driven industry, this would have triggered a suspension. Credentials can’t offset poor optics. At the Fed, governance still matters.
Cook’s suing Trump (who isn’t?), and says she won’t be ‘bullied’. Let’s see the substance of her defense.
If Trump’s firing holds, his appointees will have four of seven voting governors.
Government, Inc.
Anthony Pompliano argues Washington is being run like a business. He’s not wrong:
The alleged wisdom of open markets, free trade, and borderless economics is like a failed strategy being rebooted.
Taxpayers as ATM—shareholders/voters revolted last November.
Politicians are outsourcing accountability while deficits compound from pet projects and boundless entitlements offered to buy votes.
The “government isn’t a business” defense is how trillion-dollar deficits metastasized. The global reset won’t wait for Washington’s denial.
Energy, Russia, and the Bond Market
Russia continues to gain ground in Ukraine as Western support wanes. Every barrel of offline Russian crude tightens U.S. Treasury math. Oil shocks push inflation expectations higher and Treasury funding costs wider.
Sanctions don’t solve it. Wall Street still needs supply continuity. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent knows it—even if he can’t say it.
China’s Rare Earth Chokehold
U.S. defense manufacturing runs on Chinese rare earths. Decoupling talk is political theater. Supply chains remain bottlenecked. Tariffs may weigh on China’s growth, but Washington still imports dependency along with the minerals.
Kenya’s RMB Debt Shift: Currency Wars in Motion
Kenya’s choice to re-denominate debt into yuan highlights Beijing’s rise as global lender. The RMB is becoming the currency of sovereign survival, while the dollar remains the currency of global allocation.
The USD still dominates, but its monopoly is eroding at the margins. Future crises may not follow the old dollar wrecking-ball script.
Big Picture: A Fractured Order
U.S. equities remain the anchor but diversification flows are rising.
Old monopolies—monetary (Fed), military (U.S.), energy (West)—are fracturing.
Tech giants like Nvidia, supply shocks, and alternative funding regimes are redrawing the map.
Interdependence, not dominance, is the new macro law.
The superpower era is giving way to fragmentation. Investors who don’t adapt will miss the new playbook.
Macro Odd Lot: Swift & Kelce’s Pre-nup M&A
Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce’s engagement isn’t just a love story—it’s a liquidity event. $1.7B combined net worth, lawyers on speed dial, and GDP implications fit for a Treasury briefing.
Call it: Love Story, Baby, Just Sign Here.
In The Markets
Equities: Still dominant, though allocations to Europe/Asia accelerating. Energy: Oil risk premium remains embedded in Treasury math. FX: RMB rising as funding currency, dollar softening at the edges. Tech: Nvidia results ≠ market mover; Powell still has the mic.
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Author
Neil Winward is the founding partner of Dakota Ridge Captial, helping investors, developers, banks, non-profits, and family offices unlock massive tax savings - on average of 7%- 10% - via clean energy investments by fully leveraging U.S. government incentives such the Inflation Reduction Act.
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Explore this week’s market shifts, from Goldilocks conditions to U.S. government-led industrial investments, precious metals rallies, and the AI circular economy. Learn when to hold, fold, and navigate policy-driven opportunities.
Macro Pulse: Top 3 Market Shifts This Week
Goldilocks Grinds On — Until the Chairs Move
Goldilocks is still loving the music—but, as every seasoned player knows, when the chairs start moving, the music ends fast. Translation: It’s a bullish bonanza, but risks are lurking and seats are limited. Watch who’s still standing when the lights flicker.
Precious Metals & Bitcoin — All That Glitters
Gold and silver surged this week alongside Bitcoin. The inflation-hedge narrative is back—layered this time with shutdown drama and geopolitical paranoia. Bitcoin isn’t just speculation anymore; it’s “digital gold” for a market that doesn’t trust that politicians (or hackers) can’t flip the switch.
Reason for the rally: The U.S. government’s latest shutdown spectacle—a masterclass in dysfunction.
“Nobody really thinks Washington will fix itself, but if we pretend long enough, at least gold goes up.”
America’s ‘V.C.’ Portfolio — Four to Watch
Not your grandfather’s industrial policy. The U.S. now holds stakes in Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals—a move straight from Xi’s playbook. These firms outperform because Uncle Sam isn’t just printing dollars anymore; he’s printing term sheets and permits.
Call it statecraft, call it crowdsourced national security—just don’t ignore it.
Quick Hits
Labor Market: Job growth is cooling just enough for Powell to sound dovish—still “just right.”
S&P 500: Breadth improving—mid-caps finally joining the party.
Energy Infrastructure: $1T grid upgrade wave, $50B natural gas expansion = transition pragmatism.
AI Capex: OpenAI alone projects $1T in long-term commitments.
Investor Dilemma: Same as always—when to sell, when to keep dancing. Nobody rings the bell at the top.
This week’s deep dive: How America became its own venture capitalist, why hyperscalers are building a circular AI economy, and whether Goldilocks is glancing at the exit or just finding another chair.
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Gold isn’t just glimmering—it’s signaling a deeper structural shift in global finance. Silver, copper, and platinum are no longer sidekicks. They’re now central to both industrial growth and investor portfolios.
This week’s MacroMashup debrief explores why metals are back in focus—and why this cycle looks different from those before.
Key Takeaways
Central banks are buying gold at record levels while trimming Treasuries.
Fiat debasement is now a feature, not a bug.
Industrial demand for silver, copper, and platinum is accelerating due to grid expansion, EVs, and defense.
Supply bottlenecks (from missiles to mining) make metals a geopolitical flashpoint.
Historical Context
Gold has experienced three major bull runs—in the 1970s, the 2000s, and now. A crisis, policy shift, or geopolitical event sparked each. Today’s rally is different: it’s being driven by central banks and global power realignment.
👉 Full breakdown of these cycles, what central banks are really signaling, and how portfolios should adapt is available in the premium edition.
Metals are no longer “alternative” assets. They’re fast becoming core reserves and strategic allocations.
➡️ To access the full deep dive—including charts, history, and investor positioning—subscribe to MacroMashup Premium for only 9$/mo.
Another 25bps Fed charade, gold + Bitcoin crush the S&P, AI guts Gen Z’s job market, and foreign money returns with a hedge.
The Fed’s Theater, Gold’s Triumph, and Gen Z’s Meltdown
The Great 25 Basis Points Charade
Why It’s Time to End the Fed’s Kabuki
Another month, another Fed press conference. Jerome Powell delivered the most telegraphed 25bps cut of the decade, and markets barely yawned (although, after they slept on it, they liked it better).
S&P 500? Opened flat, closed flat. In between: wild swings as Powell tried to say nothing while pretending to say something.
Theatrics aside, the real question is: what’s the point of this performance?
The Fed has become a hostage to market expectations. Every move is pre-priced. Every word is rehearsed. And the “independence” fiction is stretched thin.
Takeaway: Rate-setting has already been ceded to markets. The Fed should admit it—and stick to plumbing fixes like repo, lending, and shadow-bank supervision. Until then, we’re watching monetary improv, not policy.
Gold, Silver, and the End of Dollar Exceptionalism
While Powell’s kabuki played out, gold and silver quietly tripled the S&P 500’s YTD returns.
Gold/S&P ratio just broke a multi-year base—the same setup that preceded monster runs in the 1970s and 2000s.
For the first time ever, the U.S. is a net importer of physical gold.
BRICS nations are doubling down on reserves. Trump’s tariff threats only deepen their resolve to build gold-backed trade corridors.
Signals missed by the mainstream:
Gold and Bitcoin are both outpacing equities.
Scarcity—metallic and digital—is the new hedge as fiat dilution accelerates.
Dollar exceptionalism is ending, quietly, while news anchors chatter about meme stocks.
AI Is Annihilating Gen Z’s Career Hopes
The business cycle has snapped. Productivity is up and boosting tech earnings. Gen Z jobs are vanishing.
Tens of thousands of entry-level knowledge roles are gone in tech and services.
Average Gen Z FICO scores fell 3 points—the steepest drop since 2008.
14% saw a 50-point nosedive, locking them out of mortgages and credit.
The “J-curve” optimists say recovery will come. The catch? No one knows where. AI has so far freed people from paychecks, rather than giving them a new pathway to shine.
Investor lens: If the 20-somethings can’t climb the ladder, consumer demand—especially housing—gets kneecapped. The only asymmetric bet Gen Z has is crypto.
Foreign Money Returns But With a Hedge
“Liberation Day” saw foreigners dump U.S. assets. Now they’re back—but hedged.
Currency-hedged funds dominate inflows.
Foreign ownership of Treasuries is at a record, but the dollar is still down 11% YTD.
International investors are treating the U.S. like any other ex-growth developed market: buy equities, short the dollar.
Decoupling confirmed: The S&P can rise while the dollar falls. This is the new playbook.
America Bends the Knee to China
Official rhetoric says “pushing back on China.” Reality says economic feudalism.
Beijing is amassing gold and silver, with 30% of trade now settling in yuan, a 10-year high.
Belt & Road vaults let borrowers repo gold locally, bypassing Treasuries.
This is the architecture of a new monetary regime. Corridor by corridor, gold is being re-monetized. The U.S. political class? Still playing catch-up. But at least they’re in the race.
Meanwhile in Windsor: Pageantry and Protest
As the U.S. kneels economically, Britain rolled out the literal red carpet.
Trump feted at Windsor Castle in full royal regalia: horses, chariots, fanfare.
Outside: activist artists projection-mapped Trump and Epstein across the castle walls during dinner. Four arrests, little coverage.
Visual metaphor of the week: Gilded decline inside, scandal suppressed outside.
In The Markets
Closing Note: Macro’s Smoke and Mirrors
The week ends in monetary fog.
Gold and Bitcoin are flashing green.
Gen Z’s labor market is a demolition zone.
Dollar weakness no longer blocks equity strength.
The inflation that matters isn’t CPI or PPI. It’s the fiscal and monetary inflation of financial assets. Stay uninvested, and you’ll be left behind.
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