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Markets moved 2,000 points this week. Here’s why that doesn’t mean what you think—and what to do about it.
This Week’s Markets: A Love-Hate Relationship with the Narrative
Investors saw the full emotional spectrum play out this week.
On Monday, markets plunged. By Wednesday, they soared. On Thursday, they steadied. The trigger? Headlines, not fundamentals.
President Trump called Fed Chair Jerome Powell a “loser” and “Mr. Too Late.” The Dow dropped 970 points. Gold hit new highs. Safe havens surged. Then, within 48 hours, Trump changed his tone: Powell’s job was safe. China trade talks were “nice.” Tariffs might be coming down. Markets rallied hard. Gold sold off.
If this feels like whiplash, it’s because it is. And it’s not new..
Narratives Don’t Lead—They Follow
Here’s the thing: markets don’t marry narratives. Neither should you.
Each week, there’s a new storyline:
Sell America—dump bonds, stocks, the dollar.
Buy gold—it’s a hedge against the end of the world.
Trump is torching global alliances.
Tariffs are freezing supply chains.
Sometimes these are true. Sometimes they’re noise. Always, they’re fleeting.
Markets digest narratives like memes—they go viral, then fade. Being early to abandon a narrative is often more profitable than sticking around for its downfall.
What Just Happened (And What Didn’t)
Let’s look at this week in numbers:
Monday:
Dow down ~970 pts
S&P 500 down ~2.4%
Nasdaq down ~2.6%
USD drops to 3-year low
Gold spikes to an all-time-high
Tuesday:
Dow +1,000 pts
S&P and Nasdaq rebound nearly 3%
Treasury hints at a China trade thaw
Wednesday:
Trump reassures: Fed Chair stays, tariffs may fall
Gold sells off ~3%
Silver rallies sharply
Thursday:
Stocks rallied for a third day in a row—the last time that happened was March 26th
Silver eased a little, and gold continued up
Credit spreads narrowed
Overall, Trump mainly focused on foreign policy and left the markets alone
This isn’t about fundamentals. It’s narrative whiplash. And it’s dominating the price action.
Gold Retreats. Silver Rises. Here’s Why.
As equities crumbled, gold absorbed the fear. But once the narrative turned, so did capital flows. Investors hiding out in gold used the rally to take profits and, when stocks rebounded, used those profits to buy equities.
Silver, often the neglected sibling, is getting more attention:
Half its value is tied to industrial demand
A tariff rollback would increase demand
Silver remains historically undervalued vs. gold
Silver’s smaller market cap also means it reacts faster to shifts in supply and demand.
Wall Street Isn’t Buying It
Since April 8, the bond market has been challenging the Trump narrative. And now, Wall Street is retaking the reins.
Yes, the President can tweet. But the Fed sets policy. And the market is watching Powell, not the press briefings.
Fed Independence – If you aim at Powell, don’t miss.
Volatility Surge – Spiking VIX = investor doubt.
Capital Rotation – Money is flowing fast—winners are temporary.
Trump vs. Powell: Act II
This isn’t the first round.
December 2018: Powell hikes. Trump lashes out. Market drops.
2019: Fed cuts four times. S&P ends up +29%.
March 2020: Pandemic panic (-34%), then Fed stimulus. S&P up +18%.
Each time, the narrative flipped. Each time, the market moved before the story played out.
Investing in a Post-Narrative World
Want to survive? Here’s your playbook:
Stay flexible – Agility > conviction
Favor data over drama – Narrative is noise
Diversify – Don’t anchor to one asset class
Buy panic, sell hype – Contrarian wins
History is helpful, not predictive – Rhymes, not repeats
Find a source you trust and stick to it—I recommend one below.
In The Markets—Chart to Watch
The S&P 500 bottomed near ~4,985—a rare three-standard-deviation move. Technicians are now watching the “death cross”: when the 50-day MA slips below the 200-day MA.
It could mean more downside. Or it could be the beginning of a reversal. Either way, use rallies to trim risk and rebalance.
Bottom Line
Don’t fall in love with the narrative. Swipe left when the story stops serving you.
Markets aren’t loyal to one version of reality, and neither should your portfolio.
What’s Next/What To Follow
For those looking for a great perspective on the macro picture and a very reasonably priced framework for structuring their investments, Darius Dale is the man. I subscribe to his service and follow his KISS framework. The Value/Price relationship is outstanding.
If you want to get some great insights into the whole macro spectrum—including Bitcoin—there is no better place to go than this brilliant conversation between Natalie Brunell and Lyn Alden.
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Table of contents
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Neil Winward is the founding partner of Dakota Ridge Captial, helping investors, developers, banks, non-profits, and family offices unlock massive tax savings - on average of 7%- 10% - via clean energy investments by fully leveraging U.S. government incentives such the Inflation Reduction Act.
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Explore this week’s market shifts, from Goldilocks conditions to U.S. government-led industrial investments, precious metals rallies, and the AI circular economy. Learn when to hold, fold, and navigate policy-driven opportunities.
Macro Pulse: Top 3 Market Shifts This Week
Goldilocks Grinds On — Until the Chairs Move
Goldilocks is still loving the music—but, as every seasoned player knows, when the chairs start moving, the music ends fast. Translation: It’s a bullish bonanza, but risks are lurking and seats are limited. Watch who’s still standing when the lights flicker.
Precious Metals & Bitcoin — All That Glitters
Gold and silver surged this week alongside Bitcoin. The inflation-hedge narrative is back—layered this time with shutdown drama and geopolitical paranoia. Bitcoin isn’t just speculation anymore; it’s “digital gold” for a market that doesn’t trust that politicians (or hackers) can’t flip the switch.
Reason for the rally: The U.S. government’s latest shutdown spectacle—a masterclass in dysfunction.
“Nobody really thinks Washington will fix itself, but if we pretend long enough, at least gold goes up.”
America’s ‘V.C.’ Portfolio — Four to Watch
Not your grandfather’s industrial policy. The U.S. now holds stakes in Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals—a move straight from Xi’s playbook. These firms outperform because Uncle Sam isn’t just printing dollars anymore; he’s printing term sheets and permits.
Call it statecraft, call it crowdsourced national security—just don’t ignore it.
Quick Hits
Labor Market: Job growth is cooling just enough for Powell to sound dovish—still “just right.”
S&P 500: Breadth improving—mid-caps finally joining the party.
Energy Infrastructure: $1T grid upgrade wave, $50B natural gas expansion = transition pragmatism.
AI Capex: OpenAI alone projects $1T in long-term commitments.
Investor Dilemma: Same as always—when to sell, when to keep dancing. Nobody rings the bell at the top.
This week’s deep dive: How America became its own venture capitalist, why hyperscalers are building a circular AI economy, and whether Goldilocks is glancing at the exit or just finding another chair.
➡️ To keep reading, please subscribe for only $9 monthly.
Gold isn’t just glimmering—it’s signaling a deeper structural shift in global finance. Silver, copper, and platinum are no longer sidekicks. They’re now central to both industrial growth and investor portfolios.
This week’s MacroMashup debrief explores why metals are back in focus—and why this cycle looks different from those before.
Key Takeaways
Central banks are buying gold at record levels while trimming Treasuries.
Fiat debasement is now a feature, not a bug.
Industrial demand for silver, copper, and platinum is accelerating due to grid expansion, EVs, and defense.
Supply bottlenecks (from missiles to mining) make metals a geopolitical flashpoint.
Historical Context
Gold has experienced three major bull runs—in the 1970s, the 2000s, and now. A crisis, policy shift, or geopolitical event sparked each. Today’s rally is different: it’s being driven by central banks and global power realignment.
👉 Full breakdown of these cycles, what central banks are really signaling, and how portfolios should adapt is available in the premium edition.
Metals are no longer “alternative” assets. They’re fast becoming core reserves and strategic allocations.
➡️ To access the full deep dive—including charts, history, and investor positioning—subscribe to MacroMashup Premium for only 9$/mo.
Another 25bps Fed charade, gold + Bitcoin crush the S&P, AI guts Gen Z’s job market, and foreign money returns with a hedge.
The Fed’s Theater, Gold’s Triumph, and Gen Z’s Meltdown
The Great 25 Basis Points Charade
Why It’s Time to End the Fed’s Kabuki
Another month, another Fed press conference. Jerome Powell delivered the most telegraphed 25bps cut of the decade, and markets barely yawned (although, after they slept on it, they liked it better).
S&P 500? Opened flat, closed flat. In between: wild swings as Powell tried to say nothing while pretending to say something.
Theatrics aside, the real question is: what’s the point of this performance?
The Fed has become a hostage to market expectations. Every move is pre-priced. Every word is rehearsed. And the “independence” fiction is stretched thin.
Takeaway: Rate-setting has already been ceded to markets. The Fed should admit it—and stick to plumbing fixes like repo, lending, and shadow-bank supervision. Until then, we’re watching monetary improv, not policy.
Gold, Silver, and the End of Dollar Exceptionalism
While Powell’s kabuki played out, gold and silver quietly tripled the S&P 500’s YTD returns.
Gold/S&P ratio just broke a multi-year base—the same setup that preceded monster runs in the 1970s and 2000s.
For the first time ever, the U.S. is a net importer of physical gold.
BRICS nations are doubling down on reserves. Trump’s tariff threats only deepen their resolve to build gold-backed trade corridors.
Signals missed by the mainstream:
Gold and Bitcoin are both outpacing equities.
Scarcity—metallic and digital—is the new hedge as fiat dilution accelerates.
Dollar exceptionalism is ending, quietly, while news anchors chatter about meme stocks.
AI Is Annihilating Gen Z’s Career Hopes
The business cycle has snapped. Productivity is up and boosting tech earnings. Gen Z jobs are vanishing.
Tens of thousands of entry-level knowledge roles are gone in tech and services.
Average Gen Z FICO scores fell 3 points—the steepest drop since 2008.
14% saw a 50-point nosedive, locking them out of mortgages and credit.
The “J-curve” optimists say recovery will come. The catch? No one knows where. AI has so far freed people from paychecks, rather than giving them a new pathway to shine.
Investor lens: If the 20-somethings can’t climb the ladder, consumer demand—especially housing—gets kneecapped. The only asymmetric bet Gen Z has is crypto.
Foreign Money Returns But With a Hedge
“Liberation Day” saw foreigners dump U.S. assets. Now they’re back—but hedged.
Currency-hedged funds dominate inflows.
Foreign ownership of Treasuries is at a record, but the dollar is still down 11% YTD.
International investors are treating the U.S. like any other ex-growth developed market: buy equities, short the dollar.
Decoupling confirmed: The S&P can rise while the dollar falls. This is the new playbook.
America Bends the Knee to China
Official rhetoric says “pushing back on China.” Reality says economic feudalism.
Beijing is amassing gold and silver, with 30% of trade now settling in yuan, a 10-year high.
Belt & Road vaults let borrowers repo gold locally, bypassing Treasuries.
This is the architecture of a new monetary regime. Corridor by corridor, gold is being re-monetized. The U.S. political class? Still playing catch-up. But at least they’re in the race.
Meanwhile in Windsor: Pageantry and Protest
As the U.S. kneels economically, Britain rolled out the literal red carpet.
Trump feted at Windsor Castle in full royal regalia: horses, chariots, fanfare.
Outside: activist artists projection-mapped Trump and Epstein across the castle walls during dinner. Four arrests, little coverage.
Visual metaphor of the week: Gilded decline inside, scandal suppressed outside.
In The Markets
Closing Note: Macro’s Smoke and Mirrors
The week ends in monetary fog.
Gold and Bitcoin are flashing green.
Gen Z’s labor market is a demolition zone.
Dollar weakness no longer blocks equity strength.
The inflation that matters isn’t CPI or PPI. It’s the fiscal and monetary inflation of financial assets. Stay uninvested, and you’ll be left behind.
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