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Gold is surging. Treasuries are wobbling. But let’s not bury the dollar just yet.
Three years of decline.
That’s what the U.S. dollar has seen.
It’s enough to get the headlines rolling:
“Is the Dollar Dying?” “Gold Soars as Faith in USD Falters.” “De-Dollarization Begins.”
But while fear sells, facts matter. And the truth is more complicated—and more interesting.
Let’s break it down.
What’s Driving The Dollar’s Slide?
There are a few major culprits:
Tariffs and trade tensions. U.S. trade policy has become more erratic, spooking markets and international partners.
Investor exit. Confidence in U.S. government debt has taken a hit. Treasuries have sold off. Stocks followed. So did the dollar.
A flight to gold. Central banks and private investors are buying gold aggressively. Gold is up 53% year-over-year, outpacing the S&P 500 by a mile in 2025.
And perhaps most telling of all: the dollar is no longer moving in tandem with 10-year Treasury yields.
Usually, they rise and fall together. Lately, they’ve diverged. That’s rare—and troubling.
Red line is USD; blue line is the 10-year Treasury yield.
Why The Dollar Still Matters
Despite the weakness, the dollar remains the core of the global financial system. It is:
The default currency for global trade
The anchor for energy pricing (like oil)
The world’s primary reserve currency
There is no replacement waiting in the wings. Not the euro. Not the yuan. Not bitcoin. Not even gold.
A Strong Dollar Can Still Break Things
Let’s not forget: a too-strong dollar can wreak havoc.
Countries that borrow in USD feel more pressure when the dollar rises.
Oil-importing nations see prices spike.
U.S. companies exporting abroad get punished by unfavorable FX rates.
In 1985, when the dollar hit peak strength under Paul Volcker, the world had had enough. This led to the Plaza Accord, in which major economies coordinated to weaken the dollar.
We could be heading toward a similar moment—Mar-a-Lago Accords?
What’s Different This Time? One Word: China
China doesn’t want to replace the dollar but wants to weaken its grip.
This chart tells the story:
U.S. still dominates GDP, stock, and bond markets.
In real terms (PPP), China is closing in fast—thanks to lower costs and faster output.
China makes ~30% of the world’s goods. That kind of leverage can pressure the dollar over time.
Still, China’s renminbi isn’t built for global reserve status. Not yet.
But Beijing is building alternatives—trade in yuan, digital currency experiments, and deals that bypass the dollar.
It’s a long game. And one worth watching.
What Could Actually Kill The Dollar?
Here’s the real risk: not China. Not inflation. Not even gold.
It’s the U.S. itself.
The dollar is mighty because people believe in it—and in the system behind it.
That trust erodes if America:
Undermines the rule of law
Turns trade into a mafia-style negotiation
Burns alliances for short-term gain
Lets debt spiral without a credible plan
Lose credibility, and no currency is safe—not even the dollar.
Final Thought
The U.S. dollar may be down. But it’s not out.
Not yet.
There’s no real alternative waiting to take the throne. But the pressure is rising. And if America wants to keep its currency at the center of the global economy, it needs to earn that position—every single day.
In The Markets
Continued volatility—every day, so it barely makes sense to post an update.
The markets are trading on headlines:
Nvidia’s write-off—stocks down
Talks with Japan are going well—markets up
Here’s one thing worth looking at: Someone has been doing well since Liberation Day.
Yes! The line going straight up since April 2nd is Trump Media. The U.S. dollar and stocks are down.
Who’s winning?
What’s Next/What To Follow
The first is Hidden Forces
I can’t recommend Demetri Kofinas’ work highly enough. His model is free for the first hour, with no ads. If you want the second hour, which includes a deeper discussion, you have to pay.
I encourage you to sign up for Hidden Forces. Demetri is a great interviewer and a thoughtful host, and the preparation is impressive.
The takeaways are:
The WhiteHouse meeting with Zelensky signaled a schism with Europe—capital is going home
Capital’s search for the location where it is best treated creates massive cross-border flows, which are spiking currency volatility.
Current account deficit’s mirror image is capital account surpluses (buying Treasuries and U.S. stocks). If we aim to reduce one, we should also expect the other to decrease.
The next is Lex Fridman
I would not recommend the entirety of this podcast. The conversation starts at 30:00. It’s worth listening to the first 20 minutes after that.
It’s a great example of a leader laying out very, very specific set of steps and a time-frame for executing his plan for Argentina.
If only our leaders could do the same.
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Table of contents
Author
Neil Winward is the founding partner of Dakota Ridge Captial, helping investors, developers, banks, non-profits, and family offices unlock massive tax savings - on average of 7%- 10% - via clean energy investments by fully leveraging U.S. government incentives such the Inflation Reduction Act.
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Explore this week’s market shifts, from Goldilocks conditions to U.S. government-led industrial investments, precious metals rallies, and the AI circular economy. Learn when to hold, fold, and navigate policy-driven opportunities.
Macro Pulse: Top 3 Market Shifts This Week
Goldilocks Grinds On — Until the Chairs Move
Goldilocks is still loving the music—but, as every seasoned player knows, when the chairs start moving, the music ends fast. Translation: It’s a bullish bonanza, but risks are lurking and seats are limited. Watch who’s still standing when the lights flicker.
Precious Metals & Bitcoin — All That Glitters
Gold and silver surged this week alongside Bitcoin. The inflation-hedge narrative is back—layered this time with shutdown drama and geopolitical paranoia. Bitcoin isn’t just speculation anymore; it’s “digital gold” for a market that doesn’t trust that politicians (or hackers) can’t flip the switch.
Reason for the rally: The U.S. government’s latest shutdown spectacle—a masterclass in dysfunction.
“Nobody really thinks Washington will fix itself, but if we pretend long enough, at least gold goes up.”
America’s ‘V.C.’ Portfolio — Four to Watch
Not your grandfather’s industrial policy. The U.S. now holds stakes in Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals—a move straight from Xi’s playbook. These firms outperform because Uncle Sam isn’t just printing dollars anymore; he’s printing term sheets and permits.
Call it statecraft, call it crowdsourced national security—just don’t ignore it.
Quick Hits
Labor Market: Job growth is cooling just enough for Powell to sound dovish—still “just right.”
S&P 500: Breadth improving—mid-caps finally joining the party.
Energy Infrastructure: $1T grid upgrade wave, $50B natural gas expansion = transition pragmatism.
AI Capex: OpenAI alone projects $1T in long-term commitments.
Investor Dilemma: Same as always—when to sell, when to keep dancing. Nobody rings the bell at the top.
This week’s deep dive: How America became its own venture capitalist, why hyperscalers are building a circular AI economy, and whether Goldilocks is glancing at the exit or just finding another chair.
➡️ To keep reading, please subscribe for only $9 monthly.
Gold isn’t just glimmering—it’s signaling a deeper structural shift in global finance. Silver, copper, and platinum are no longer sidekicks. They’re now central to both industrial growth and investor portfolios.
This week’s MacroMashup debrief explores why metals are back in focus—and why this cycle looks different from those before.
Key Takeaways
Central banks are buying gold at record levels while trimming Treasuries.
Fiat debasement is now a feature, not a bug.
Industrial demand for silver, copper, and platinum is accelerating due to grid expansion, EVs, and defense.
Supply bottlenecks (from missiles to mining) make metals a geopolitical flashpoint.
Historical Context
Gold has experienced three major bull runs—in the 1970s, the 2000s, and now. A crisis, policy shift, or geopolitical event sparked each. Today’s rally is different: it’s being driven by central banks and global power realignment.
👉 Full breakdown of these cycles, what central banks are really signaling, and how portfolios should adapt is available in the premium edition.
Metals are no longer “alternative” assets. They’re fast becoming core reserves and strategic allocations.
➡️ To access the full deep dive—including charts, history, and investor positioning—subscribe to MacroMashup Premium for only 9$/mo.
Another 25bps Fed charade, gold + Bitcoin crush the S&P, AI guts Gen Z’s job market, and foreign money returns with a hedge.
The Fed’s Theater, Gold’s Triumph, and Gen Z’s Meltdown
The Great 25 Basis Points Charade
Why It’s Time to End the Fed’s Kabuki
Another month, another Fed press conference. Jerome Powell delivered the most telegraphed 25bps cut of the decade, and markets barely yawned (although, after they slept on it, they liked it better).
S&P 500? Opened flat, closed flat. In between: wild swings as Powell tried to say nothing while pretending to say something.
Theatrics aside, the real question is: what’s the point of this performance?
The Fed has become a hostage to market expectations. Every move is pre-priced. Every word is rehearsed. And the “independence” fiction is stretched thin.
Takeaway: Rate-setting has already been ceded to markets. The Fed should admit it—and stick to plumbing fixes like repo, lending, and shadow-bank supervision. Until then, we’re watching monetary improv, not policy.
Gold, Silver, and the End of Dollar Exceptionalism
While Powell’s kabuki played out, gold and silver quietly tripled the S&P 500’s YTD returns.
Gold/S&P ratio just broke a multi-year base—the same setup that preceded monster runs in the 1970s and 2000s.
For the first time ever, the U.S. is a net importer of physical gold.
BRICS nations are doubling down on reserves. Trump’s tariff threats only deepen their resolve to build gold-backed trade corridors.
Signals missed by the mainstream:
Gold and Bitcoin are both outpacing equities.
Scarcity—metallic and digital—is the new hedge as fiat dilution accelerates.
Dollar exceptionalism is ending, quietly, while news anchors chatter about meme stocks.
AI Is Annihilating Gen Z’s Career Hopes
The business cycle has snapped. Productivity is up and boosting tech earnings. Gen Z jobs are vanishing.
Tens of thousands of entry-level knowledge roles are gone in tech and services.
Average Gen Z FICO scores fell 3 points—the steepest drop since 2008.
14% saw a 50-point nosedive, locking them out of mortgages and credit.
The “J-curve” optimists say recovery will come. The catch? No one knows where. AI has so far freed people from paychecks, rather than giving them a new pathway to shine.
Investor lens: If the 20-somethings can’t climb the ladder, consumer demand—especially housing—gets kneecapped. The only asymmetric bet Gen Z has is crypto.
Foreign Money Returns But With a Hedge
“Liberation Day” saw foreigners dump U.S. assets. Now they’re back—but hedged.
Currency-hedged funds dominate inflows.
Foreign ownership of Treasuries is at a record, but the dollar is still down 11% YTD.
International investors are treating the U.S. like any other ex-growth developed market: buy equities, short the dollar.
Decoupling confirmed: The S&P can rise while the dollar falls. This is the new playbook.
America Bends the Knee to China
Official rhetoric says “pushing back on China.” Reality says economic feudalism.
Beijing is amassing gold and silver, with 30% of trade now settling in yuan, a 10-year high.
Belt & Road vaults let borrowers repo gold locally, bypassing Treasuries.
This is the architecture of a new monetary regime. Corridor by corridor, gold is being re-monetized. The U.S. political class? Still playing catch-up. But at least they’re in the race.
Meanwhile in Windsor: Pageantry and Protest
As the U.S. kneels economically, Britain rolled out the literal red carpet.
Trump feted at Windsor Castle in full royal regalia: horses, chariots, fanfare.
Outside: activist artists projection-mapped Trump and Epstein across the castle walls during dinner. Four arrests, little coverage.
Visual metaphor of the week: Gilded decline inside, scandal suppressed outside.
In The Markets
Closing Note: Macro’s Smoke and Mirrors
The week ends in monetary fog.
Gold and Bitcoin are flashing green.
Gen Z’s labor market is a demolition zone.
Dollar weakness no longer blocks equity strength.
The inflation that matters isn’t CPI or PPI. It’s the fiscal and monetary inflation of financial assets. Stay uninvested, and you’ll be left behind.
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