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The Monetary Arms Race: Gold, Fusion & Stablecoins Redefine “Safe” Assets
MacroMashup Newsletter

The Monetary Arms Race: Gold, Fusion & Stablecoins Redefine “Safe” Assets

Gold is going mainstream again—this time with a debit card.

Jul 25, 2025
Neil Winward

Author:

Neil Winward

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Founder and CEO

of

Dakota Ridge Capital

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    The Monetary Arms Race: Gold, Fusion & Stablecoins Redefine “Safe” Assets
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    Gold’s not just a hedge anymore—it’s a payment method.

    London-based fintech Glint Pay lets users buy, store, and spend gold worldwide via app and debit card. Yes, that cappuccino just debited a few milligrams from a Swiss vault.

    Why it matters:

    • Hard money with UX: Glint lets users sidestep FX fees, inflation fears, and fiat fragility—without leaving the regulated financial grid.
    • Real metal, real impact: As everyday transactions settle in gold, vault demand tightens—irking central banks already juggling monetary credibility.
    • States are listening: 22 U.S. states recognize gold as legal tender; several are drafting bills to accept it for taxes.

    Macro ripple:

    If states start taking tax payments in bullion, Glint and its peers could become the piping of a parallel currency system. Expect battles over monetary sovereignty—and a revival of gold’s role as real money.

    Yes, your balance will fluctuate with the price of gold, but, remember, your dollar bank account is depreciating 8% each year—you just don’t see it!

    Bottom line: Watch your latte—and your legislature. The gold standard might be coming to a checkout terminal near you.

    Fusion Gold: Alchemy That Comes with a Half-Life

    Fusion Gold: Alchemy That Comes with a Half-Life

    Marathon Fusion isn’t just promising limitless clean energy—it claims it can also transmute mercury into gold. Welcome to the 21st-century alchemy arms race.

    The catch?

    Fusion gold is radioactive. It must sit untouched in a vault for up to 18 years before it’s safe to handle, mint, or collateralize.

    But don’t dismiss it:

    • Fusion output is just 0.2% of global gold supply—economically irrelevant.
    • Narratively, though? Massive.
      It challenges gold’s brand as the natural, immutable, scarcity-based asset. Investors might soon need to ask: “Is your gold mined or lab-grown?”

    Bottom line: Gold’s still a safe haven—but in a world of plasma reactors and synthetic assets, it may soon need a warning label.

    Judy Shelton’s Gold-Backed Treasuries Are Back (Again)

    Judy Shelton’s Gold-Backed Treasuries Are Back (Again)

    With deficits ballooning and fiat trust fraying, economist Judy Shelton is reviving a bold idea: Treasury bonds redeemable in either dollars or gold.

    The pitch:

    • Bondholders would have the option to claim gold at maturity.
    • It’s a hard-money hedge—and a 21st-century gold standard in disguise.

    The math problem:

    • Official U.S. gold price: $42/oz
    • Market price: $3,500/oz
      A revaluation would be politically explosive, and mints would struggle to meet demand.

    Geopolitical ripple:

    If it catches on, expect a global scramble to re-anchor sovereign balance sheets with hard assets.

    Bottom line: Shelton’s plan sounds radical—until it doesn’t. In a world of $2 trillion deficits and fiat fatigue, this could be the canary in the gold mine.

    The $700B Gold Card Sitting in Washington’s Wallet

    The $700B Gold Card Sitting in Washington’s Wallet

    The U.S. holds 8,100+ metric tons of gold—on paper worth just $11B. At market value? $760B+.

    The temptation:

    Mark gold to market and instantly book a $700B+ windfall—no taxes, no borrowing, just re-accounting. Politically radioactive, but fiscally tempting.

    Global dominoes:

    Other central banks would face pressure to do the same, potentially rewriting the role of gold in global monetary systems.

    Bottom line: Gold revaluation is the nuclear option of fiscal policy—symbolic, controversial, and system-shifting.

    Stablecoins: From Crypto Sideshow to Treasury Lifeline

    Stablecoins: From Crypto Sideshow to Treasury Lifeline

    The GENIUS Act just gave Washington’s deficits a new friend: stablecoins. These crypto tokens—backed 1:1 by T-bills—are now fully regulated.

    Why it matters:

    • At scale ($1–2T), stablecoin issuers could absorb 10% of all U.S. T-bills.
    • That’s a bond-buying class the Treasury can’t ignore.

    It’s also a payment revolution:

    Stablecoins let crypto users bypass banks entirely—trading instantly, globally, frictionlessly.

    The geopolitical edge:

    As China’s WeChat system grows globally, U.S. stablecoins offer a blockchain-native counterattack—dollar-denominated, private-sector led.

    Bottom line: Stablecoins are no longer niche—they’re Treasury buyers, dollar defenders, and the banking sector’s newest competitor.

    Total Crypto Currency

    Fed Under Fire: Construction Overruns & Political Rumors

    The Fed’s $2B headquarters renovation is now a political football. Critics are whispering: Could this become grounds to fire the Chair?

    The legal high bar:

    The Supreme Court says Fed Chairs can only be removed “for cause.” Overspending on drywall probably won’t qualify. But that’s not the point.

    The real risk:

    Using facilities mismanagement to justify removal efforts is a proxy war—a direct challenge to central bank independence.

    Bottom line: The building may be under renovation—but the Fed’s credibility is what’s really on shaky scaffolding. Trump will let the clock run out on Powell—removing him would take too long—but…he could resign.

    Fed + Treasury: Fiscal Fusion Fantasies Return

    Fed + Treasury

    Back in the 1940s, the Treasury told the Fed what to do. Peg the rates. Finance the war. Full control.

    In 2025, history may be rhyming. Some policy voices are pushing for tighter Fed-Treasury alignment—or even outright merger.

    Why now?

    • Ballooning deficits
    • Political deadlock
    • Fiscal desperation

    The danger?

    Markets still rely on central bank independence. A visible Treasury takeover would:

    • Tank global trust
    • Spike borrowing costs
    • Undermine dollar supremacy

    Bottom line: Wartime fusions make sense during crises. But post-war, they usually fracture—and this one would fracture fast. Remember, the Fed only controls the short-end. A Trump sycophant lowering the discount rate would likely just steepen the curve.

    The New Hierarchy of Collateral

    Gold. Treasurys. Stablecoins: each vying for the crown.

    Retirement Revolution: Alts for Everyone

    Retirement Revolution

    Trump’s rumored executive order could unlock $12.4T in 401(k) and IRA capital—paving the way for allocations into private equity, hedge funds, real estate, crypto, and gold.

    It’s a seismic shift:

    • Asset managers win big
    • Savers get more choice (and risk)
    • Traditional 60/40 portfolios? Maybe toast.

    Bottom line: Retirement may be going “alt.” Expect a rerating of trillions in capital flows—and a new normal for portfolio construction.

    Final Takeaway: The Gravity of Money Is Moving

    Money is no longer just a line in a ledger. It’s atoms in a vault, code on a blockchain, and plasma in a lab. The future of value is being engineered—by fintechs, fusion startups, and governments playing fiscal chess with monetary credibility.

    Ignore the noise. Watch the anchors shift.

    In The Markets

    The Monetar Market

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      Neil Winward

      Neil Winward is the founding partner of Dakota Ridge Captial, helping investors, developers, banks, non-profits, and family offices unlock massive tax savings - on average of 7%- 10% - via clean energy investments by fully leveraging U.S. government incentives such the Inflation Reduction Act.

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      The Queue: Where AI’s Grid Constraint Gets Real
      MacroMashup Newsletter
      3

      The Queue: Where AI’s Grid Constraint Gets Real

      Neil Winward

      This week’s MacroMashup deep dive examines one of the least discussed datasets in macro markets: The US interconnection queue. More than 2,300 gigawatts of power generation are currently waiting to connect to the grid.

      MacroMashup Research Summary

      Core Thesis

      Markets are obsessed with AI chips.

      But the real constraint may be electricity.

      The US interconnection queue has become the chokepoint of American electricity expansion. Roughly 2,300 gigawatts of generation capacity are currently waiting to connect to a grid that operates at about 1,200 gigawatts today.

      Why It Matters

      AI infrastructure, electrification, and energy transition all depend on grid access. Interconnection delays now stretch three to six years in several regions, creating the first major bottleneck in the next wave of electricity demand.

      Key Data

      • 2,300 GW waiting in US interconnection queues. These projects include solar, wind, battery storage, natural gas, and other generation technologies.

      • Only ~13% of projects entering the queue ultimately complete

      • Median wait times approaching five years in several regions

      • Demand pressure ratios exceeding 5× in ERCOT

      Market Signals

      The queue is becoming a leading indicator for:

      • electricity price pressure

      • utility capex cycles

      • natural gas demand

      • regional AI infrastructure migration

      AI models scale at software speed.

      Electricity infrastructure expands at infrastructure speed.

      The Signal

      This Week’s Dashboard

      It’s all about the barrel.

      Oil dominated nearly every signal this week. Brent crude rallied from roughly $82 to $88, while WTI followed closely, settling near $85. The Strait of Hormuz remains the transmission mechanism: tanker transits have collapsed from roughly 24 per day to single digits since the conflict began, and every headline about the Strait is now moving assets across the macro dashboard.

      Gold was caught in the crossfire. When oil spikes, the dollar typically strengthens on safe-haven flows and higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Gold sold off from its late-February highs before stabilizing this week as the dollar softened again. Central bank buying remains the structural floor, but in the short term the dollar and the 10-year yield are driving the tape.

      The information war intensified as well. President Trump posted that the conflict was “very complete, pretty much.” Netanyahu responded with a new wave of strikes on Tehran. Iran apologized to the UAE after collateral damage from retaliatory drone strikes — and then continued launching them.

      At one point the White House deleted a social media post claiming the US Navy had escorted a tanker through the Strait of Hormuz after confirming no such escort had occurred. Oil briefly dropped on the headline before rebounding.

      Meanwhile the IEA proposed the largest strategic petroleum reserve release in its history. Pipeline alternatives are suddenly receiving attention, and the market is attempting to price the difference between a four-week war and a four-month one — a distinction worth tens of dollars per barrel.

      Equities barely reacted. The S&P finished the week essentially flat at ~6,781. Credit spreads widened modestly but remain far from pricing sustained economic damage.

      Either the market is right.

      Or it hasn’t caught up yet.

      But the most important constraint shaping the next phase of this cycle may not be geopolitical.

      It may be structural.

      Because the next phase of the global economy will run on electricity.

      The Real Constraint Behind the AI Boom

      Last week we introduced the idea that AI’s real constraint may not be software.

      It may be electricity.

      This intersection between AI infrastructure and electricity systems is becoming one of the most important macro stories of the next decade.

      are launching AI Grid Report, a new research publication focused on the intersection of AI infrastructure, electricity systems, and energy markets.

      The first issues will examine how the global AI buildout could reshape electricity demand, natural gas markets, and power infrastructure investment.

      If you’re interested in how the power grid may shape the next phase of the AI economy, you can preview the project here:

      https://open.substack.com/pub/theaigridreport

      The first issues will be launching soon.

      🔒 Deep Dive for Members

      Read More
      From Hormuz to the Grid: The Chokepoints That Matter
      MacroMashup Newsletter
      3

      From Hormuz to the Grid: The Chokepoints That Matter

      Neil Winward

      Markets are modeling AI disruption at software speed. But electricity infrastructure may determine how fast the real economy can absorb it.

      Welcome to MacroMashup. We focus on constraints, not forecasts. Market structure, not vibes. Capital flows, leverage, and incentives—where things actually break.

      The week’s dominant story is geopolitical.

      U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran. Retaliation spreading across the region. The Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. Markets scrambling to price the energy shock.

      But beneath the geopolitical noise, another question is taking shape as Anthropic and OpenAI wrestle with the Department of War over the role AI will play.

      The question is not whether AI can transform the economy and the battlefield—it already has— but how fast.

      Because AI runs on compute. And compute runs on power.

      The constraint shaping the next phase of the AI cycle may not be technological progress.

      It may be the infrastructure required to supply electricity fast enough.

      In this week’s MacroMashup deep dive, we examine:

      • why AI adoption may move at infrastructure speed rather than software speed

      • how grid constraints could shape the timeline of economic disruption

      • why energy infrastructure may become the leverage point of the AI economy

      A look at this week’s dashboard tells the story of which chokepoint is throttling harder.

      If you want to understand the structural constraints shaping global markets, join the MacroMashup community.

      Subscribe for weekly briefings examining the forces behind the next economic cycle.

      Read More
      When the Price Mechanism Breaks: What the Simon–Ehrlich Bet Gets Wrong About AI
      MacroMashup Newsletter
      3

      When the Price Mechanism Breaks: What the Simon–Ehrlich Bet Gets Wrong About AI

      Neil Winward

      Why capital misprices time-based energy constraints in the age of exponential compute.

      In 1980, Julian Simon made one of the most famous bets in economic history.

      He bet that human ingenuity would defeat scarcity.

      Paul Ehrlich bet the opposite.

      Simon won.

      Commodity prices fell.

      Technology advanced.

      Supply responded.

      The lesson became doctrine:

      When prices rise, markets fix shortages.

      That belief now underpins trillions of dollars in capital allocation.

      It also underpins the AI boom.

      But here’s the question investors are not asking:

      What happens when prices can’t fix the bottleneck?

      This week, we’re not debating AI.

      We’re not debating energy transition.

      We’re not debating scarcity narratives.

      We’re examining something deeper:

      When does the price mechanism stop working — and what does that mean for portfolio construction?

      Inside this issue:

      • Where Simon still works
      • Where the mechanism slows
      • Where it structurally fails
      • And how to allocate when constraint becomes time-based, not price-based

      Because in 2026, the edge is not identifying demand.

      It’s identifying where capital hits physical delay.

      Continue reading for the full allocator framework.

      Read More
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