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Policy Paralysis or Calm Before the Storm? Markets Watch the Senate, Warily
Washington’s back in session and markets couldn’t be more bored. The Senate’s version of the One Big, Beautiful Bill trades blunt force for precision, thanks in part to Parliamentarian McDonough’s “Byrd Bath” rules, which require every provision to speak strictly to budget reconciliation. Her rulings may ultimately shape the bill more than party leaders themselves.
Senate Priorities Amid Los Angeles Unrest
With thousands of National Guard troops and Marines deployed to quell nationwide protests in Los Angeles sparked by aggressive federal ICE raids, the Senate is fast-tracking two controversial measures in the reconciliation framework:
Medicaid for undocumented immigrants is being stripped from the package—cleanly excised under pressure to align the bill with budget reconciliation rules.
ICE recruiter incentives are heading in the opposite direction: U.S. agents will receive $10,000 bonuses for meeting enforcement targets—an effort to bolster staffing amid rising political unrest.
Clean Energy in Limbo: Senate Holds the Balance
The clean-energy portion of the One Big Beautiful Bill hangs by a thread as the Senate prepares its version. The House’s version would sharply curtail key Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) credits—pulling IRA clean-credits like 45Y and 48E unless projects begin construction in 60 days and are completed by 2028, while slashing residential and tech-neutral incentives.
That rollback triggered swift backlash: bipartisan senators led by Utah’s John Curtis are urging relief—advocating phased timelines, credit transferability, and preserving support for nuclear and geothermal—even as fossil-fuel friendly Republicans push methane fee reductions.
Major tech players (Microsoft, Google, AWS, Meta) are lobbying to save clean-power credits critical for AI data centers. Meanwhile, over 175 mayors and local leaders cautioned the Senate that axing these incentives could jeopardize jobs, raise energy costs, and stall $14 bn in projects already planned.
Bottom line: Without Senate amendments—targeting start-date flexibility, rescued transferability, and maybe foreign-entity sourcing fixes—the clean-energy agenda risks collapse. And that means more policy paralysis, not progress.
Empire Wind Approved—Pipelines Quietly Resurface
In a quiet but telling trade-off, New York Governor Kathy Hochul has signed off on the long-delayed Empire Wind offshore project—a major win for clean energy advocates. But in the background, two previously blocked natural gas pipelines—Constitution and NESE—are now quietly advancing through state permitting channels.
Neither Albany nor Washington is calling it a deal, but the sequencing tells the story: offshore wind moves forward, and fossil fuel infrastructure gets a second wind.
The takeaway: In U.S. infrastructure, progress doesn’t always follow market signals—but political symmetry gets results.
U.S.–China Trade Talks Pivot to Swaps Over Sanctions
In a sharp departure from the tariff wars of years past, Washington and Beijing are quietly crafting a resource-for-access deal:
China needs U.S. ethane to fuel its petrochemical and plastics industries.
The U.S. needs Chinese rare earths for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and advanced defense systems.
The contours of the deal:
China resumes rare earths exports.
The U.S. loosens select chip and equipment controls.
Visa restrictions for Chinese students and researchers ease.
Beijing steps up enforcement on fentanyl precursor production.
The only thing missing? Signatures from Xi and Trump.
Markets aren’t waiting—they’re pricing in détente, not disruption.
A Shifting Global Order: Welcome to the Age of Monsters
Antonio Gramsci once warned, “The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born. Now is the time of monsters.”
That moment may be here.
Multilaterals like the IMF, World Bank, UN, and WTO are losing authority as geopolitical fractures deepen.
Globalism is in retreat, replaced by nationalist trade policies and mercantilist rhetoric.
Populist waves are reshaping leadership across Europe and the U.S.
Central banks face creeping fiscal dominance, their independence tested as deficits balloon and political pressure mounts.
The investor takeaway: This is no longer a market that responds to earnings or inflation prints alone. It’s a market reacting to regime change—political, monetary, and structural. Adapt accordingly.
Market Takeaways: Stay Nimble, Avoid the Crossfire
Amid rising volatility and political noise, the smartest play may be to sidestep the ideological battles and focus on positioning:
U.S. equities still anchor economic growth and help close the fiscal gap via capital gains and retirement distributions.
Gold and Bitcoin are beneficiaries of dollar weakness and tightening liquidity.
Precious metals offer asymmetric upside during regime shifts.
And beware: Bearish narratives are often monetized—fueling trading volumes, subscriptions, and fear-based positioning.
As the main character, Gordon Gekko, famously said in the 1980s movie, Wall Street:
“If you want a friend, get a dog.” And remember, you don’t need to outrun the bear—just the guy behind you.
Credit: HBO
Central Banks Under Scrutiny: William White’s Warning
A former central banker himself, William White pulls no punches:
Inflation targeting is a slow leak, not a precise tool
Debt addiction has governments hooked on easy money
Models won’t save us—economies don’t operate like machines
Quantitative easing is akin to sugar—good short-term, bad long-term
Next step? Fed and other central banks must stay hawkish while urging fiscal stimulus—politicians must carry the fiscal torch
Market Update: Resilience in the Midst of Noise
Stocks shrugged off early turbulence—cleared within weeks.
Bond volatility (MOVE) and VIX spiked briefly, now calmed.
Silver held firm—watch for:
Sustained $35–$40+ range.
Potential short squeeze.
High premium on physical supply.
Even Tesla rebounded from its X/IPO spat.
Reality check: Many bearish narratives serve brokerage and hedge fund fee revenue. But fundamentals? Strong balance sheets, low unemployment, business deregulation, and decent policy offsets suggest recession risks remain distant.
Narrative Busting
CPI fell below expectations this week.
Bond auctions— showing less stress: $120 billion priced in 3, 10 and 30-year at lower rates than pre-market.
Tariffs: once inflationary, now increasingly benign.
Rate cuts from Powell? Markets are virtually unanimous: “No” next week.
Final Word
Markets may be in a summer lull—but beneath the surface, tectonic shifts are underway. If you’re not navigating fiscal and political regime change with intent, you’re drifting.
MacroMashup’s mission is to help you cut through the haze so you feel informed and confident about your investment decisions.
Neil Winward is the founding partner of Dakota Ridge Captial, helping investors, developers, banks, non-profits, and family offices unlock massive tax savings - on average of 7%- 10% - via clean energy investments by fully leveraging U.S. government incentives such the Inflation Reduction Act.
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Explore this week’s market shifts, from Goldilocks conditions to U.S. government-led industrial investments, precious metals rallies, and the AI circular economy. Learn when to hold, fold, and navigate policy-driven opportunities.
Macro Pulse: Top 3 Market Shifts This Week
Goldilocks Grinds On — Until the Chairs Move
Goldilocks is still loving the music—but, as every seasoned player knows, when the chairs start moving, the music ends fast. Translation: It’s a bullish bonanza, but risks are lurking and seats are limited. Watch who’s still standing when the lights flicker.
Precious Metals & Bitcoin — All That Glitters
Gold and silver surged this week alongside Bitcoin. The inflation-hedge narrative is back—layered this time with shutdown drama and geopolitical paranoia. Bitcoin isn’t just speculation anymore; it’s “digital gold” for a market that doesn’t trust that politicians (or hackers) can’t flip the switch.
Reason for the rally: The U.S. government’s latest shutdown spectacle—a masterclass in dysfunction.
“Nobody really thinks Washington will fix itself, but if we pretend long enough, at least gold goes up.”
America’s ‘V.C.’ Portfolio — Four to Watch
Not your grandfather’s industrial policy. The U.S. now holds stakes in Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals—a move straight from Xi’s playbook. These firms outperform because Uncle Sam isn’t just printing dollars anymore; he’s printing term sheets and permits.
Call it statecraft, call it crowdsourced national security—just don’t ignore it.
Quick Hits
Labor Market: Job growth is cooling just enough for Powell to sound dovish—still “just right.”
S&P 500: Breadth improving—mid-caps finally joining the party.
Energy Infrastructure: $1T grid upgrade wave, $50B natural gas expansion = transition pragmatism.
AI Capex: OpenAI alone projects $1T in long-term commitments.
Investor Dilemma: Same as always—when to sell, when to keep dancing. Nobody rings the bell at the top.
This week’s deep dive: How America became its own venture capitalist, why hyperscalers are building a circular AI economy, and whether Goldilocks is glancing at the exit or just finding another chair.
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Gold isn’t just glimmering—it’s signaling a deeper structural shift in global finance. Silver, copper, and platinum are no longer sidekicks. They’re now central to both industrial growth and investor portfolios.
This week’s MacroMashup debrief explores why metals are back in focus—and why this cycle looks different from those before.
Key Takeaways
Central banks are buying gold at record levels while trimming Treasuries.
Fiat debasement is now a feature, not a bug.
Industrial demand for silver, copper, and platinum is accelerating due to grid expansion, EVs, and defense.
Supply bottlenecks (from missiles to mining) make metals a geopolitical flashpoint.
Historical Context
Gold has experienced three major bull runs—in the 1970s, the 2000s, and now. A crisis, policy shift, or geopolitical event sparked each. Today’s rally is different: it’s being driven by central banks and global power realignment.
👉 Full breakdown of these cycles, what central banks are really signaling, and how portfolios should adapt is available in the premium edition.
Metals are no longer “alternative” assets. They’re fast becoming core reserves and strategic allocations.
➡️ To access the full deep dive—including charts, history, and investor positioning—subscribe to MacroMashup Premium for only 9$/mo.
Another 25bps Fed charade, gold + Bitcoin crush the S&P, AI guts Gen Z’s job market, and foreign money returns with a hedge.
The Fed’s Theater, Gold’s Triumph, and Gen Z’s Meltdown
The Great 25 Basis Points Charade
Why It’s Time to End the Fed’s Kabuki
Another month, another Fed press conference. Jerome Powell delivered the most telegraphed 25bps cut of the decade, and markets barely yawned (although, after they slept on it, they liked it better).
S&P 500? Opened flat, closed flat. In between: wild swings as Powell tried to say nothing while pretending to say something.
Theatrics aside, the real question is: what’s the point of this performance?
The Fed has become a hostage to market expectations. Every move is pre-priced. Every word is rehearsed. And the “independence” fiction is stretched thin.
Takeaway: Rate-setting has already been ceded to markets. The Fed should admit it—and stick to plumbing fixes like repo, lending, and shadow-bank supervision. Until then, we’re watching monetary improv, not policy.
Gold, Silver, and the End of Dollar Exceptionalism
While Powell’s kabuki played out, gold and silver quietly tripled the S&P 500’s YTD returns.
Gold/S&P ratio just broke a multi-year base—the same setup that preceded monster runs in the 1970s and 2000s.
For the first time ever, the U.S. is a net importer of physical gold.
BRICS nations are doubling down on reserves. Trump’s tariff threats only deepen their resolve to build gold-backed trade corridors.
Signals missed by the mainstream:
Gold and Bitcoin are both outpacing equities.
Scarcity—metallic and digital—is the new hedge as fiat dilution accelerates.
Dollar exceptionalism is ending, quietly, while news anchors chatter about meme stocks.
AI Is Annihilating Gen Z’s Career Hopes
The business cycle has snapped. Productivity is up and boosting tech earnings. Gen Z jobs are vanishing.
Tens of thousands of entry-level knowledge roles are gone in tech and services.
Average Gen Z FICO scores fell 3 points—the steepest drop since 2008.
14% saw a 50-point nosedive, locking them out of mortgages and credit.
The “J-curve” optimists say recovery will come. The catch? No one knows where. AI has so far freed people from paychecks, rather than giving them a new pathway to shine.
Investor lens: If the 20-somethings can’t climb the ladder, consumer demand—especially housing—gets kneecapped. The only asymmetric bet Gen Z has is crypto.
Foreign Money Returns But With a Hedge
“Liberation Day” saw foreigners dump U.S. assets. Now they’re back—but hedged.
Currency-hedged funds dominate inflows.
Foreign ownership of Treasuries is at a record, but the dollar is still down 11% YTD.
International investors are treating the U.S. like any other ex-growth developed market: buy equities, short the dollar.
Decoupling confirmed: The S&P can rise while the dollar falls. This is the new playbook.
America Bends the Knee to China
Official rhetoric says “pushing back on China.” Reality says economic feudalism.
Beijing is amassing gold and silver, with 30% of trade now settling in yuan, a 10-year high.
Belt & Road vaults let borrowers repo gold locally, bypassing Treasuries.
This is the architecture of a new monetary regime. Corridor by corridor, gold is being re-monetized. The U.S. political class? Still playing catch-up. But at least they’re in the race.
Meanwhile in Windsor: Pageantry and Protest
As the U.S. kneels economically, Britain rolled out the literal red carpet.
Trump feted at Windsor Castle in full royal regalia: horses, chariots, fanfare.
Outside: activist artists projection-mapped Trump and Epstein across the castle walls during dinner. Four arrests, little coverage.
Visual metaphor of the week: Gilded decline inside, scandal suppressed outside.
In The Markets
Closing Note: Macro’s Smoke and Mirrors
The week ends in monetary fog.
Gold and Bitcoin are flashing green.
Gen Z’s labor market is a demolition zone.
Dollar weakness no longer blocks equity strength.
The inflation that matters isn’t CPI or PPI. It’s the fiscal and monetary inflation of financial assets. Stay uninvested, and you’ll be left behind.
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