Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
Welcome to Macro Mashup, the weekly newsletter that distills the content from key voices on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and energy in less than 7 minutes. Thank you for subscribing!
Macro Mashup aims to bring together the greatest minds in Finance and Economics who care deeply about current U.S. and international affairs. We study the latest news and laws that affect our economy, money, and lives, so you don't have to.
Tune in to our channels and join our newsletter, podcast, or community to stay informed so you can make smarter decisions to protect your wealth.
Why Do We Need A Reset?
What Was The Deal After WW2?
Post-WWII U.S. Dominance: With unmatched economic strength, military power, and geographic advantage, the U.S. took the lead in shaping the postwar world order.
Bretton Woods Conference (1944): The U.S. led 44 allied nations to create a new financial system anchored by institutions like the IMF, World Bank, and IBRD, placing the U.S. dollar at the center of global trade.
Trade and Security Framework: The U.S. Navy secured global trade routes. Meanwhile, the U.S. rebuilt devastated economies like Germany and Japan—buying their exports to jumpstart growth and ensure prosperity.
Cold War Bargain: In return for economic support, U.S. allies were expected to align with the West in countering Soviet communism.
Gold Standard: The Bretton Woods system linked global currencies to the U.S. dollar, which was convertible to gold at $35/oz—a system that worked as long as the U.S. held most of the world’s gold.
Built-In Trade Deficit: With the USD as the global reserve currency, countries sold goods to the U.S. and accumulated dollars, resulting in America's persistent structural trade deficit.
Challenges to U.S. Dominance: As Europe and Japan recovered, U.S. dominance began to wane. Simultaneously, the cost of the Vietnam War and domestic spending like the Great Society strained U.S. finances.
End of Gold Standard (1971): Mounting inflation and gold outflows prompted President Nixon to end gold convertibility, ushering in the era of floating exchange rates and fiat currencies.
China’s Reentry: Initially excluded due to Taiwan’s role in Bretton Woods institutions, China began warming ties with the U.S. in the 1970s and formally joined in 1980.
Rise of China: 2001 China joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). The West hoped it would liberalize and modernize.
Instead:
China became the world’s manufacturing base,
Western corporations offshored production to boost profits,
China aggressively harvested intellectual property to fuel its industrial ascent.
Where We Have Ended Up
Decades later, the consequences of these shifts are painfully clear:
U.S. manufacturing has been hollowed out
Entitlement spending continues to balloon
Defense budgets fund never-ending foreign entanglements
The U.S. runs chronic trade deficits, deepening dependence on foreign suppliers—especially China—for:
Critical medical supplies (remember COVID-19?)
Components essential to U.S. military hardware
Meanwhile, through successive financial crises and a global pandemic, we’ve:
Grown dependent on the Federal Reserve to bail out markets during every downturn,
Lived through extended periods of zero or near-zero interest rates, allowing asset holders to borrow cheaply and build wealth,
Racked up $36 trillion in national debt, with annual deficits now approaching $2 trillion and rising fast.
We have $140 trillion in wealth
But it’s not distributed evenly
The bottom 50%—a large cohort of Trump’s base—does not care if the stock market gets turned upside down.
The Reset Is Intended to Benefit Main Street, Not Wall Street
What Has Trump Done?
He has placed a $10 trillion bet on reshaping the economy.
His tariff strategy is blunt yet transparent—a high-stakes attempt to reset global trade rules.
The plan? Use access to the U.S. market as leverage, offering the carrot of trade opportunity in exchange for “fairer” terms.
His endgame is to redraw the global trade map into three camps:
Nations aligned with the U.S.
Nations that are neutral
Nations that have elected into trade tension with the U.S.
What Does He Hope To Achieve?
Fairer trade terms: Many countries have long imposed tariffs on U.S. goods. Trump’s position is that it’s payback time.
A sense of justice: Like the NFL player who retaliates and gets the penalty, Trump argues that he’s not the instigator, just the one finally pushing back.
A revival of domestic manufacturing: An ambitious goal with bi-partisan support.
Is The Method Worth The Madness?
Markets recoiled largely because the tariff levels were shockingly high—and markets hate surprises.
The negotiating style is classic Trump: aim high, create chaos, and force the other side to the table.
But the tone is aggressive, bordering on hostile. Countries have two options: retaliate or fold—neither inspiring goodwill.
It’s less of a negotiation and more of a geopolitical standoff—Trump is holding the world to ransom
Either:
Trump’s a genius
Trump caved to the bond vigilantes
In The Markets
Let’s dig into some charts.
Mood: Bloodbath to Bubblebath?
April 9, 2025 was the most successful day in stock markets since 2008.
April 10 was less reassuring:
The Bond Vigilantes had their way and forced Trump to cave…or he’s a genius.
Finally, credit spreads pay attention
But now something else is happening:
The 10-year yield is heading in the opposite direction from the USD, suggesting that something may still be rotten in the markets.
What’s The Spin?
The Trump administration argues that the president is a genius. He fired the tariff canon and waited for a week.
Tariffs bit at midnight on April 8, 2025 - drum roll.
75 nations offered to negotiate. China raised the stakes, and Trump doubled down on China.
The stock market freaked. No problem.
Then, the U.S. Treasury market started to go on tilt, and someone told Trump that it would melt the planet.
So he told the Bond vigilantes he had their backs—just watch me. I bet he didn’t use the Watergate recorded line for that…
The 10-year auction went great, and vigilantes got some tasty yields.
Then Trump tweeted the rabbit from the hat: tariffs for those who played nicely were delayed for 90 days. Not China, though—bad China!
The stock market gapped up. Hostage or genius? You tell me.
What Should You Do?
If you are confused, you are in good company:
The turnaround took 75 minutes.
This is your playbook for the next 90 days:
Pay attention to Truth Social—it’s your best source.
Don’t place big bets on market direction.
Place your stop loss/stop limits/puts carefully to protect your downside.
Sell into rallies—buy the dip, sell the rip.
Simplify your portfolio so you understand what you have.
Remember that bear markets return stocks to their rightful owners—don’t give yours away.
What’s Next/What To Follow
If you want a 15-minute breakdown of what one experienced investor thinks might be going on with Trump and the markets, go no farther than this excellent piece from Mark Tilbury
This podcast by Adam Taggart has an intereview with Lawrence Lepard (@LawrenceLepard on X) where they discuss Lawrence’s latest book, The Big Print.
The first half of the book diagnoses how we got into the situation that needs resetting. The second half proposes some quite radical solutions.
Five Ways To Support MacroMashup
If you are interested in clean energy investment advisory services, book a complimentary call here
Please subscribe to our new YouTube channel - or support our audio podcast by following us on Spotify or Apple - we appreciate your support!
If you'd like me to be a guest on your podcast or guest blog about clean energy or macroeconomics, send an email to contact@macromashup.com
If you enjoy this newsletter, please email it to a friend by clicking on the button below.
Help others learn, click to share
This is some text inside of a div block.
This is some text inside of a div block.
Table of contents
Author
Neil Winward is the founding partner of Dakota Ridge Captial, helping investors, developers, banks, non-profits, and family offices unlock massive tax savings - on average of 7%- 10% - via clean energy investments by fully leveraging U.S. government incentives such the Inflation Reduction Act.
BOOK A CALL
READY TO TAKE ACTION ON YOUR ENERGY PROJECT? BOOK A COMPLIMENTARY, ZERO-OBLIGATION CONSULTATION TO SEE HOW WE CAN HELP YOU.
Explore this week’s market shifts, from Goldilocks conditions to U.S. government-led industrial investments, precious metals rallies, and the AI circular economy. Learn when to hold, fold, and navigate policy-driven opportunities.
Macro Pulse: Top 3 Market Shifts This Week
Goldilocks Grinds On — Until the Chairs Move
Goldilocks is still loving the music—but, as every seasoned player knows, when the chairs start moving, the music ends fast. Translation: It’s a bullish bonanza, but risks are lurking and seats are limited. Watch who’s still standing when the lights flicker.
Precious Metals & Bitcoin — All That Glitters
Gold and silver surged this week alongside Bitcoin. The inflation-hedge narrative is back—layered this time with shutdown drama and geopolitical paranoia. Bitcoin isn’t just speculation anymore; it’s “digital gold” for a market that doesn’t trust that politicians (or hackers) can’t flip the switch.
Reason for the rally: The U.S. government’s latest shutdown spectacle—a masterclass in dysfunction.
“Nobody really thinks Washington will fix itself, but if we pretend long enough, at least gold goes up.”
America’s ‘V.C.’ Portfolio — Four to Watch
Not your grandfather’s industrial policy. The U.S. now holds stakes in Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals—a move straight from Xi’s playbook. These firms outperform because Uncle Sam isn’t just printing dollars anymore; he’s printing term sheets and permits.
Call it statecraft, call it crowdsourced national security—just don’t ignore it.
Quick Hits
Labor Market: Job growth is cooling just enough for Powell to sound dovish—still “just right.”
S&P 500: Breadth improving—mid-caps finally joining the party.
Energy Infrastructure: $1T grid upgrade wave, $50B natural gas expansion = transition pragmatism.
AI Capex: OpenAI alone projects $1T in long-term commitments.
Investor Dilemma: Same as always—when to sell, when to keep dancing. Nobody rings the bell at the top.
This week’s deep dive: How America became its own venture capitalist, why hyperscalers are building a circular AI economy, and whether Goldilocks is glancing at the exit or just finding another chair.
➡️ To keep reading, please subscribe for only $9 monthly.
Gold isn’t just glimmering—it’s signaling a deeper structural shift in global finance. Silver, copper, and platinum are no longer sidekicks. They’re now central to both industrial growth and investor portfolios.
This week’s MacroMashup debrief explores why metals are back in focus—and why this cycle looks different from those before.
Key Takeaways
Central banks are buying gold at record levels while trimming Treasuries.
Fiat debasement is now a feature, not a bug.
Industrial demand for silver, copper, and platinum is accelerating due to grid expansion, EVs, and defense.
Supply bottlenecks (from missiles to mining) make metals a geopolitical flashpoint.
Historical Context
Gold has experienced three major bull runs—in the 1970s, the 2000s, and now. A crisis, policy shift, or geopolitical event sparked each. Today’s rally is different: it’s being driven by central banks and global power realignment.
👉 Full breakdown of these cycles, what central banks are really signaling, and how portfolios should adapt is available in the premium edition.
Metals are no longer “alternative” assets. They’re fast becoming core reserves and strategic allocations.
➡️ To access the full deep dive—including charts, history, and investor positioning—subscribe to MacroMashup Premium for only 9$/mo.
Another 25bps Fed charade, gold + Bitcoin crush the S&P, AI guts Gen Z’s job market, and foreign money returns with a hedge.
The Fed’s Theater, Gold’s Triumph, and Gen Z’s Meltdown
The Great 25 Basis Points Charade
Why It’s Time to End the Fed’s Kabuki
Another month, another Fed press conference. Jerome Powell delivered the most telegraphed 25bps cut of the decade, and markets barely yawned (although, after they slept on it, they liked it better).
S&P 500? Opened flat, closed flat. In between: wild swings as Powell tried to say nothing while pretending to say something.
Theatrics aside, the real question is: what’s the point of this performance?
The Fed has become a hostage to market expectations. Every move is pre-priced. Every word is rehearsed. And the “independence” fiction is stretched thin.
Takeaway: Rate-setting has already been ceded to markets. The Fed should admit it—and stick to plumbing fixes like repo, lending, and shadow-bank supervision. Until then, we’re watching monetary improv, not policy.
Gold, Silver, and the End of Dollar Exceptionalism
While Powell’s kabuki played out, gold and silver quietly tripled the S&P 500’s YTD returns.
Gold/S&P ratio just broke a multi-year base—the same setup that preceded monster runs in the 1970s and 2000s.
For the first time ever, the U.S. is a net importer of physical gold.
BRICS nations are doubling down on reserves. Trump’s tariff threats only deepen their resolve to build gold-backed trade corridors.
Signals missed by the mainstream:
Gold and Bitcoin are both outpacing equities.
Scarcity—metallic and digital—is the new hedge as fiat dilution accelerates.
Dollar exceptionalism is ending, quietly, while news anchors chatter about meme stocks.
AI Is Annihilating Gen Z’s Career Hopes
The business cycle has snapped. Productivity is up and boosting tech earnings. Gen Z jobs are vanishing.
Tens of thousands of entry-level knowledge roles are gone in tech and services.
Average Gen Z FICO scores fell 3 points—the steepest drop since 2008.
14% saw a 50-point nosedive, locking them out of mortgages and credit.
The “J-curve” optimists say recovery will come. The catch? No one knows where. AI has so far freed people from paychecks, rather than giving them a new pathway to shine.
Investor lens: If the 20-somethings can’t climb the ladder, consumer demand—especially housing—gets kneecapped. The only asymmetric bet Gen Z has is crypto.
Foreign Money Returns But With a Hedge
“Liberation Day” saw foreigners dump U.S. assets. Now they’re back—but hedged.
Currency-hedged funds dominate inflows.
Foreign ownership of Treasuries is at a record, but the dollar is still down 11% YTD.
International investors are treating the U.S. like any other ex-growth developed market: buy equities, short the dollar.
Decoupling confirmed: The S&P can rise while the dollar falls. This is the new playbook.
America Bends the Knee to China
Official rhetoric says “pushing back on China.” Reality says economic feudalism.
Beijing is amassing gold and silver, with 30% of trade now settling in yuan, a 10-year high.
Belt & Road vaults let borrowers repo gold locally, bypassing Treasuries.
This is the architecture of a new monetary regime. Corridor by corridor, gold is being re-monetized. The U.S. political class? Still playing catch-up. But at least they’re in the race.
Meanwhile in Windsor: Pageantry and Protest
As the U.S. kneels economically, Britain rolled out the literal red carpet.
Trump feted at Windsor Castle in full royal regalia: horses, chariots, fanfare.
Outside: activist artists projection-mapped Trump and Epstein across the castle walls during dinner. Four arrests, little coverage.
Visual metaphor of the week: Gilded decline inside, scandal suppressed outside.
In The Markets
Closing Note: Macro’s Smoke and Mirrors
The week ends in monetary fog.
Gold and Bitcoin are flashing green.
Gen Z’s labor market is a demolition zone.
Dollar weakness no longer blocks equity strength.
The inflation that matters isn’t CPI or PPI. It’s the fiscal and monetary inflation of financial assets. Stay uninvested, and you’ll be left behind.
Enjoyed this newsletter? Get Involved.
Subscribe to MacroMashup: one email a week, zero noise.
Book a call with Dakota Ridge Capital if you’re investing in clean energy or want to optimize for tax strategy
Unlock the Opportunities of the Inflation Reduction Act! Are you ready to stay ahead in today's shifting economic landscape? Our comprehensive white paper breaks down the Inflation Reduction Act and reveals the key benefits, incentives, and strategies your business needs to capitalize on. Learn how to optimize your financial planning, leverage tax credits, and position your company for sustainable growth.
Pre-order now to get the insights and actionable steps that can give your business a competitive edge.
New Version Release Date: 12/10/2024
Thank you! Your submission has been received!
Oops! Something went wrong while submitting the form.
.svg)
.svg)
.svg)
.avif)
.avif)
.svg)
.svg)
