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Welcome to Macro Mashup, the weekly newsletter that distills the content from key voices on macroeconomics, geopolitics, and energy in less than 7 minutes. Thank you for subscribing!
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What Is The Tariff Strategy?
The markets have been waiting for Liberation Day. Now it has arrived, what does it mean?
President Trump said the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs would be 50% of the rate charged to the U.S. The method used by the administration is:
It is cumulative, so the reciprocal rate is stacked on tariffs already levied, e.g. add the reciprocal tariff of 34% to the existing 20% tariff on China, taking the total tariff to 54%
It is not clear how or when this tariff will roll-off
The upside is that this is probably the worst case, so things can only get better from here, and at least we have some certainty now…
What’s The Plan?
Here’s an overview of what Trump is trying to accomplish with his tariff strategy:
The strategy intends to shift the dots toward the reciprocity line. The historical quid pro for this asymmetry has been that the U.S. should receive support from the U.N. votes. This has not worked out so well: most of the beneficiaries of the asymmetrical trade balance with the U.S. have voted with the U.S. less than 50% of the time.
Our post-WWII, post-Bretton Woods deal with the rest of the world is that we buy everyone’s ‘stuff’—which drives the trade deficits—and we ‘export’ premium-priced financial assets such as stocks and bonds.
If this deal is going to change—and President Trump wants it to change—then there will be outflows from stocks and bonds. This is one reason the financial markets are freaking out.
According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, the administration is attempting to significantly reset the economy, but for Main Street, not Wall Street, which is designed to set the U.S. on a much stronger footing.
In the short term, however, the impact on the investment landscape is volatile.
Here are a few screenshots before during and after the tariff announcements:
Before the announcement
SQQQ, the 3x leveraged bet on the NASDAQ going down was down on the day.
After the announcement
SQQQ turned around in the aftermarket yesterday and is now up nearly 14% Thursday afternoon.
I’m Not Smart Enough to Trade This Market - Your Mileage May Differ
Navigating this chaotic market is very hard. The long-term policy post-reset may be a good one, but getting there is like threading the eye of a tiny needle. You have to have great eyes or great trading tools.
The chart above is crazy.
It shows the NASDAQ 100 index and the 3x leveraged inverse ETF SQQQ, which bets on the NDX going down.
The bar at the bottom indicates Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence. RSI is an indicator of momentum based on price changes in the last 14 days.
The RSI divergence measures divergence from that momentum. Divergence indicates possible reversals of momentum.
Look at the number of bull and bear divergences in the last five days!
Pro Tip: Stay on the sidelines when the market is like this to avoid getting hurt. Bets in either direction could be terribly wrong…or terribly right.
Tools You Can Use If You’re Not a Day Trader
There are two pattern indicators I like over longer cycles:.
Kondratieff Wave
Elliot Wave
Here is a quick compare and contrast:
Kondratieff is a tool for understanding which market season we are in.
Elliot is a way to understand how prices behave within that season.
he chart above shows the gold price over the last five years with Elliot waves plotted.
A quick summary is that a typical wave cycle involves five impulse waves up or down. You can see those waves on the left in 2020 and right since 2024.
There don’t seem to have been many seasons for gold over the last five years: what climate alarmists would describe as a strong secular warming trend!
The fifth wave signals the end of a cycle, where gold seems to be at the moment.
The chart for Bitcoin over a similar period shows many more seasons and waves. The fifth wave occurred at $108,000, followed by a strong movement down, after which it has been range-bound between $80,000 and $90,000.3
Pro Tip: Now might be a good time to realize some gains in gold in anticipation of a possible downward wave—a sell signal, but not all of your position.
Bitcoin is a definite hold at this point. You were wise to sell above $100,000 or even in the 90s, but now, within the $80,000-$90,000 range, no strong trend is visible.
What Is The Genius Act?
It stands for Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins. Huh?
The legislation is designed to create a sound regulatory framework for stablecoins.
Stablecoins are a convenient way to trade in and out of Bitcoin—or any cryptocurrency—without converting funds back into fiat currency via traditional banking systems.
It sounds boring, but moving cash around into and out of the banking system takes time. With stablecoins, it’s more or less instantaneous.
Stablecoins need to be backed by undoubted collateral, usually T-bills, to make people feel secure doing this.
Tether is the most well-known stablecoin
Tether’s margins exploded since T-Bills started earning 4%+ interest. They hold T-Bills to back the stablecoins and pay no interest, so…$144 billion of market cap at 4% interest margin…
A cynic might say that regulation is about allowing banks to enter this very lucrative business. Here’s the legislative language.
To qualify as a permitted payment stablecoin issuers, a person would have to incorporate in the US and then be either:
A federal qualified nonbank payment stablecoin issuer that have been approved by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) pursuant to terms set forth in the Act.
A subsidiary of an insured depository institution that has been approved by the depository institution’s primary federal regulator (e.g., the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (“Federal Reserve”) for state member banks) pursuant to terms set forth in the Act.
A state qualified payment stablecoin issuer that have been approved by a state payment stablecoin regulator.
Here’s how vital Tether is…and how important stablecoins are about to become.
Takeaway: This is how the government finds another buyer for all the T-bills it needs to issue after it tells China to take back all its surplus capital.
In The Markets
I snapped this image around midday Wednesday, four hours before the formal Whitehouse announcement of tariffs. It captures the mood perfectly.
Volatility is up over 28%
Major indices are sharply down by 3.5-4.5%
Precious metals have had a more volatile week, especially silver, down nearly 6%
BTC has traded relatively better than the stock indices, and credit spreads have tightened a bit
Markets are in the process of repricing earnings to reflect the impact of tariffs. This is going to take a while.
What’s Next/What To Follow?
If you have so far buried your head in the sand on robots, it might be time to start paying attention, because
This excellent piece by The Oregon Group provides a crash course with charts. It’s worth a click.
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Table of contents
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Neil Winward is the founding partner of Dakota Ridge Captial, helping investors, developers, banks, non-profits, and family offices unlock massive tax savings - on average of 7%- 10% - via clean energy investments by fully leveraging U.S. government incentives such the Inflation Reduction Act.
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Explore this week’s market shifts, from Goldilocks conditions to U.S. government-led industrial investments, precious metals rallies, and the AI circular economy. Learn when to hold, fold, and navigate policy-driven opportunities.
Macro Pulse: Top 3 Market Shifts This Week
Goldilocks Grinds On — Until the Chairs Move
Goldilocks is still loving the music—but, as every seasoned player knows, when the chairs start moving, the music ends fast. Translation: It’s a bullish bonanza, but risks are lurking and seats are limited. Watch who’s still standing when the lights flicker.
Precious Metals & Bitcoin — All That Glitters
Gold and silver surged this week alongside Bitcoin. The inflation-hedge narrative is back—layered this time with shutdown drama and geopolitical paranoia. Bitcoin isn’t just speculation anymore; it’s “digital gold” for a market that doesn’t trust that politicians (or hackers) can’t flip the switch.
Reason for the rally: The U.S. government’s latest shutdown spectacle—a masterclass in dysfunction.
“Nobody really thinks Washington will fix itself, but if we pretend long enough, at least gold goes up.”
America’s ‘V.C.’ Portfolio — Four to Watch
Not your grandfather’s industrial policy. The U.S. now holds stakes in Intel, MP Materials, Lithium Americas, and Trilogy Metals—a move straight from Xi’s playbook. These firms outperform because Uncle Sam isn’t just printing dollars anymore; he’s printing term sheets and permits.
Call it statecraft, call it crowdsourced national security—just don’t ignore it.
Quick Hits
Labor Market: Job growth is cooling just enough for Powell to sound dovish—still “just right.”
S&P 500: Breadth improving—mid-caps finally joining the party.
Energy Infrastructure: $1T grid upgrade wave, $50B natural gas expansion = transition pragmatism.
AI Capex: OpenAI alone projects $1T in long-term commitments.
Investor Dilemma: Same as always—when to sell, when to keep dancing. Nobody rings the bell at the top.
This week’s deep dive: How America became its own venture capitalist, why hyperscalers are building a circular AI economy, and whether Goldilocks is glancing at the exit or just finding another chair.
➡️ To keep reading, please subscribe for only $9 monthly.
Gold isn’t just glimmering—it’s signaling a deeper structural shift in global finance. Silver, copper, and platinum are no longer sidekicks. They’re now central to both industrial growth and investor portfolios.
This week’s MacroMashup debrief explores why metals are back in focus—and why this cycle looks different from those before.
Key Takeaways
Central banks are buying gold at record levels while trimming Treasuries.
Fiat debasement is now a feature, not a bug.
Industrial demand for silver, copper, and platinum is accelerating due to grid expansion, EVs, and defense.
Supply bottlenecks (from missiles to mining) make metals a geopolitical flashpoint.
Historical Context
Gold has experienced three major bull runs—in the 1970s, the 2000s, and now. A crisis, policy shift, or geopolitical event sparked each. Today’s rally is different: it’s being driven by central banks and global power realignment.
👉 Full breakdown of these cycles, what central banks are really signaling, and how portfolios should adapt is available in the premium edition.
Metals are no longer “alternative” assets. They’re fast becoming core reserves and strategic allocations.
➡️ To access the full deep dive—including charts, history, and investor positioning—subscribe to MacroMashup Premium for only 9$/mo.
Another 25bps Fed charade, gold + Bitcoin crush the S&P, AI guts Gen Z’s job market, and foreign money returns with a hedge.
The Fed’s Theater, Gold’s Triumph, and Gen Z’s Meltdown
The Great 25 Basis Points Charade
Why It’s Time to End the Fed’s Kabuki
Another month, another Fed press conference. Jerome Powell delivered the most telegraphed 25bps cut of the decade, and markets barely yawned (although, after they slept on it, they liked it better).
S&P 500? Opened flat, closed flat. In between: wild swings as Powell tried to say nothing while pretending to say something.
Theatrics aside, the real question is: what’s the point of this performance?
The Fed has become a hostage to market expectations. Every move is pre-priced. Every word is rehearsed. And the “independence” fiction is stretched thin.
Takeaway: Rate-setting has already been ceded to markets. The Fed should admit it—and stick to plumbing fixes like repo, lending, and shadow-bank supervision. Until then, we’re watching monetary improv, not policy.
Gold, Silver, and the End of Dollar Exceptionalism
While Powell’s kabuki played out, gold and silver quietly tripled the S&P 500’s YTD returns.
Gold/S&P ratio just broke a multi-year base—the same setup that preceded monster runs in the 1970s and 2000s.
For the first time ever, the U.S. is a net importer of physical gold.
BRICS nations are doubling down on reserves. Trump’s tariff threats only deepen their resolve to build gold-backed trade corridors.
Signals missed by the mainstream:
Gold and Bitcoin are both outpacing equities.
Scarcity—metallic and digital—is the new hedge as fiat dilution accelerates.
Dollar exceptionalism is ending, quietly, while news anchors chatter about meme stocks.
AI Is Annihilating Gen Z’s Career Hopes
The business cycle has snapped. Productivity is up and boosting tech earnings. Gen Z jobs are vanishing.
Tens of thousands of entry-level knowledge roles are gone in tech and services.
Average Gen Z FICO scores fell 3 points—the steepest drop since 2008.
14% saw a 50-point nosedive, locking them out of mortgages and credit.
The “J-curve” optimists say recovery will come. The catch? No one knows where. AI has so far freed people from paychecks, rather than giving them a new pathway to shine.
Investor lens: If the 20-somethings can’t climb the ladder, consumer demand—especially housing—gets kneecapped. The only asymmetric bet Gen Z has is crypto.
Foreign Money Returns But With a Hedge
“Liberation Day” saw foreigners dump U.S. assets. Now they’re back—but hedged.
Currency-hedged funds dominate inflows.
Foreign ownership of Treasuries is at a record, but the dollar is still down 11% YTD.
International investors are treating the U.S. like any other ex-growth developed market: buy equities, short the dollar.
Decoupling confirmed: The S&P can rise while the dollar falls. This is the new playbook.
America Bends the Knee to China
Official rhetoric says “pushing back on China.” Reality says economic feudalism.
Beijing is amassing gold and silver, with 30% of trade now settling in yuan, a 10-year high.
Belt & Road vaults let borrowers repo gold locally, bypassing Treasuries.
This is the architecture of a new monetary regime. Corridor by corridor, gold is being re-monetized. The U.S. political class? Still playing catch-up. But at least they’re in the race.
Meanwhile in Windsor: Pageantry and Protest
As the U.S. kneels economically, Britain rolled out the literal red carpet.
Trump feted at Windsor Castle in full royal regalia: horses, chariots, fanfare.
Outside: activist artists projection-mapped Trump and Epstein across the castle walls during dinner. Four arrests, little coverage.
Visual metaphor of the week: Gilded decline inside, scandal suppressed outside.
In The Markets
Closing Note: Macro’s Smoke and Mirrors
The week ends in monetary fog.
Gold and Bitcoin are flashing green.
Gen Z’s labor market is a demolition zone.
Dollar weakness no longer blocks equity strength.
The inflation that matters isn’t CPI or PPI. It’s the fiscal and monetary inflation of financial assets. Stay uninvested, and you’ll be left behind.
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