Blue Momentum, Red Lines, and the $100K Bitcoin Question

Artificial intelligence is accelerating the largest surge in electricity demand in modern American history. Data centers are being built faster than utilities can deliver power to them, and the grid was never designed for this speed or scale of load growth. Everything from national energy security to regional pricing and global technology competition will be shaped by how the United States responds in the next two to five years.

Most investors are still focused on AI models, software, and chipmakers. These are important, but they are not where the most asymmetric opportunity will come from. The deeper truth is that the next decade will be defined by the energy systems that power AI, not the AI companies themselves. The real opportunity is forming at the infrastructure layer.

In the full version of this analysis, I cover the specific regions where grid failure risk is rising, the companies that are best positioned to benefit from the AI driven power buildout, the indicators investors should monitor to stay ahead of the curve, and the policy signals that will determine the winners and losers of this new cycle.

To continue reading, become a MacroMashup subscriber.

Subscribe to MacroMashup to unlock this full analysis

‍

No spam. No promotions.

Only high-quality macro insights from MacroMashup that help you understand where the world is moving and how to position your portfolio.

‍

This week, global macro stopped whispering and started shouting.

Liquidity is tightening, repo markets are wobbling, and the Fed’s plumbing is starting to creak under the weight of a $2T annual deficit. Meanwhile:

• Robotaxis slash labor costs by 80%
  
• Amazon prepares for a 75% workforce reduction
  
• UBI enters mainstream policy debate
  
• Bitcoin falters while gold steals the narrative
  
• COP 30 quietly concedes to fossil-fueled AI
  
• The shutdown’s aftershocks hit the real economy
  
• AGI risk moves from sci-fi to macro driver
  

Inside the full MacroMashup:

➡ Liquidity stress and the return of fiscal dominance
➡ Repo strain and the Fed’s SRF going full throttle
➡ Automation’s labor shock + the inevitability of UBI
➡ Bitcoin’s narrative crisis vs. gold’s resurgence
➡ COP 30, natural gas, and the AI-energy paradox
➡ The post-shutdown macro damage
➡ The AI Rubicon: AGI, geopolitics, power grids, and capital

This is the busiest macro week of Q4—and the most consequential.

👉 Subscribe to read the full analysis

Bill Gates Is Right About Climate—But Here’s the Part Most People Miss

Bill Gates recently published an essay called “Three Tough Truths About Climate.”

It’s one of the rare climate pieces that is both data-driven and realistic, without the panic theater.

The central point is simple:

Climate change will not lead to human extinction.

But lifting billions of people out of poverty while decarbonizing the world will be the biggest infrastructure buildout in human history.

That is the real challenge—not the headlines, not the doomsday narratives, and not the political shouting.

Climate is a scaling problem, and scaling requires capital, technology, and policy that makes clean energy bankable.

Let’s break down Gates’ argument—and the piece everyone forgets to talk about.

The world needs more energy, not less

This is the truth almost nobody says out loud.

• Global energy demand will more than double by 2050
  
• Economic growth depends on electricity
  
• The fastest way to reduce climate vulnerability is to make countries wealthier
  

Gates puts it bluntly:

“You can’t reduce emissions by keeping people poor.”

If the goal is human welfare—not just carbon accounting—we need cheap, reliable, abundant power.

That means:

• Massive grid buildouts
  
• Energy storage at scale
  
• Distributed systems for the poorest regions
  
• Manufacturing powered by clean energy, not coal
  

You don’t get there by shrinking the energy supply.

You get there by rebuilding it.

‍The good news: technology is winning

This part isn’t widely known outside of energy circles:

• Solar and wind prices have dropped 90% in two decades
  
• Storage is falling fast
  
• In many regions, clean energy is the cheapest electricity on Earth
  
  

Gates notes that in the past 10 years, projected global CO₂ emissions for 2040 have dropped over 40% due to innovation. That progress happened quietly and without enough credit.

The climate story is no longer “renewables are too expensive.”

The story is now:

renewables scale fastest when the financing structure is bankable.

That’s where policy and project finance matter.

The bottleneck is no longer technology

It’s capital, transmission, and bankable deals

Breakthroughs exist:

• Zero-emission steel
  
• Clean cement
  
• Green hydrogen
  
• Low-carbon fertilizers
  
• Methane-reducing livestock feed
  
• Advanced nuclear
  
• Industrial heat pumps
  

But innovation without financing is just a lab result.

Projects do not move without:

✅ predictable revenue

✅ risk mitigation

✅ creditworthy counterparties

✅ standardized contracts

✅ tax incentives that pencil for investors

This is why U.S. tax-credit policy changed everything.

By allowing transferability, credits became a real financial asset class—not just a tax-technical tool for large corporates.

In many cases, this reduced the cost of capital and accelerated adoption.

The hardest part ahead: scaling to poor countries

Climate risk is not evenly distributed.

Rich nations can adapt.

Poor nations suffer most.

But here’s the uncomfortable reality:

If a nation cannot afford electricity, climate spending is irrelevant.

To protect lives:

• Energy must be cheap
  
• Systems must be reliable
  
• Financing must be accessible
  
• Risk must be insurable
  

A good climate strategy is also a good development strategy.

Clean energy is not a luxury product—it’s critical infrastructure.

Stop measuring success only in carbon

This is where Gates is exactly right.

If every climate conversation ends at “X tons of CO₂ avoided,” we’ve missed the point.

The real metric is:

• How many lives improved?
  
• How many communities electrified?
  
• How many people protected from heat waves, crop loss, and instability?
  
• How many nations gained energy independence?
  

Human welfare is the North Star.

Carbon is just one variable.

The takeaway: we don’t need fear

We need scale

Climate change is not an extinction scenario.

It’s a buildout scenario.

We will need:

• Gigawatts of new generation
  
• Terawatt-hours of storage
  
• Steel, copper, transmission lines
  
• Billions in capital
  
• Insurance, indemnities, and offtake contracts
  
• And a financing system that makes it profitable to build
  

When clean energy makes financial sense, it scales.

When it scales, people thrive.

That’s the future worth betting on.

Closing

Gates is right to remind the world that this isn’t about apocalyptic doom.

It’s about engineering, economics, and global development.

The world doesn’t need less energy.

It needs more energy—clean, abundant, reliable—and accessible to every nation.

If we measure success by human welfare, we will solve climate faster than fear ever could.

Enjoyed this newsletter? Get Involved.

• Subscribe to MacroMashup: one email a week, zero noise.
• Book a call with Dakota Ridge Capital if you’re investing in clean energy or want to optimize for tax strategy
• Watch us on YouTube, or tune in via Spotify / Apple
• Collaborate with us at contact@macromashup.com

📤 Enjoyed this? Share it via LinkedIn, repost on X → here, or forward it via email.